Azeem Azhar

And so, wow, we've got the hallucination rate down as OpenAI has with GPT-5, enough to say we don't need to attend to it all the time, but not so low that you can't let it run thousands of times without there being lots of problems or power a 25-step workflow through it.

And so you end up with this funny space, which is, of course, the technology is better than it was.

Of course, it's giving us more value for the $20 or $200 a month, but we really feel that gap.

So why does this all matter?

Shifting goalposts mean we redefine success as soon as it's achieved.

Negative space means every improvement makes what is still missing even more obvious.

Together, they guarantee that GPT-5 or GPT-6 or any new model from Anthropic or from Google or DeepSeek will probably feel less revolutionary than perhaps it really is.

GPT-5 didn't fail to impress us because it wasn't impressive.

it failed to impress us because we were never going to be impressed.

This probably means that we're not going to have a before and after artificial general intelligence moment.

Rather, improvements will get delivered on a smooth-ish curve.

To have a moment of awe, a sense of before and after, I think we will need a

paradigm shift in the way we build and deliver AI models and in what they can actually do.

We have some experience of that because that's exactly what ChatGPT did.

There is a before ChatGPT and after ChatGPT

But that moment came about by something that was rather surprising and surprising to OpenAI itself, which was ChatGPT and how effective it was and how it delivered a new paradigm.

So until we actually get AI systems that are built on that new paradigm that have such a distinct flavor to them, to the systems before, we'll continue to be unimpressed.

And that would be my median expectation of the coming months and couple of years at least as the AI companies roll out better and better systems.

Today, I'd like to speak to you about a question that really got me thinking.

So I was on WhatsApp with my buddy and we were discussing the news that OpenAI is allowing insiders, that is early investors in the companies and employees, to sell up to $10 billion of stock at a $500 billion valuation.