Azeem Azhar

OpenAI envisages its profit levels in 2029 or 2030, but roughly EBITDA, which is a key measure of that, is roughly the free cash flow, plus and capex, minus depreciation and amortization.

And if serving costs

of serving these complex models fall through the use of efficiency techniques, improved algorithms, improved routing, custom silicon.

We just heard today that Broadcom is going to be building specific chips for open AI.

Tens of billions of dollars of EBITDA could be plausible by the end of the decade.

And on top of that, for the bull case, ChatGPT has become the cultural shorthand.

It is the hoover of vacuum cleaners, the Kleenex of tissues.

In that sense, people say, I'm using ChatGPT, or occasionally they say, I'm using Chat.

That brand is really, really important.

And in the last couple of weeks, there were changes in leadership at OpenAI, not the chaotic changes that we've seen over the past year with co-founders leaving, but Fiji Sumo, who's a very, very well regarded executive, was previously the CEO of Instacart, has come in to be the CEO of applications in OpenAI, a

requiring another AI company to bring the founder there on as CTO so that Sam Altman can, rumor has it, work on the big framing of open AI and global AI infrastructure.

So there is something that is being put together around thinking about how do we build an organization that can take advantage of our technology, our brand, our distribution, and our growth rates.

To get to that $1.5 trillion number, it implies big increase scale in the business.

But when you turn back that $174 billion revenue number in 2030, you take off Microsoft's cut, whether it's 10% or 20% by that time.

and you turn that into multiples, it looks a little bit expensive, certainly more expensive than Meta is today, but much cheaper than, say, a Tesla is today as well.

So the bit that surprised me in all of this when I did this pencil maths, and actually I looked at some other people's work, was that there is sort of this credible path.

I mean, it's not impossible.

There is a path towards that number.

Of course,

to be doing $170 billion of revenue in 2030 means that the market has to be much, much bigger than that.