Azeem Azhar

Of course, there will be competition from other companies.

Google, having launched its Code Red a couple of years ago, really feels like it's got into third gear.

It's shipping more frequently.

It's willing to experiment with using its distribution across their different platforms to put AI in front of people.

It, of course, has really deep technical depth and infrastructure, not just within DeepMind, but across the rest of Google.

Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, he's like Decimus from The Gladiator, you know, on my command, unleash hell.

He is chasing after this.

It is absolutely flooring the pedal.

Just today, he was with the president of the US and he made some enormous commitments about how much metal was going to build, how much infrastructure running into the hundreds of billions of dollars over the next few years.

And, you know, Apple in all of this has been fumbling around looking for its keys.

I think it's found its keys.

It may even be able to get them into the ignition.

But these are three companies that in different ways understand how to monetize consumers, and it's consumers who make up 75% to 80% or more of OpenAI's revenue.

And on top of that, there is this strange channel conflict with Microsoft that has to play out.

So there is competition from traditional technology companies.

At the same time, the technology is improving really, really rapidly.

And we've written about this in Exponential View about how the cost per token has dramatically fallen by many, many orders of magnitude over the past few years, and pricing may well

fall dramatically further and that starts to kind of crush your operating leverage right you're even though you as you get more efficient you're in a competitive space and those margins start to fall of course there's that jevons effect that sees more usage but it's not making up for the fact that perhaps you're making less money or maybe even no money serving these systems

We can't forget about the way in which the market might take shape.

If you look at the database market, for example, about half of the market is proprietary databases and half of the market is open source.