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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Large language models pushing for scale are doing kind of amazing and interesting things, but they are pretty lumbering.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And there are other approaches.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You know, there are alternative architectures that people are using today.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

For example, Liquid AI, which is an MIT spin-out, which has

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Models that are about 10 times as efficient as transformers.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You've got Yann LeCun at Meta talking about his framework, that what is needed to move beyond these autoregressive, exponentially decaying large language models are frameworks that have a much better, stronger sense of the world.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Demis Hassabis is a Nobel laureate, runs DeepMind, built some of the greatest AI technologies of the moment.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

What we'll say, look,

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

We don't know whether there aren't going to be really big breakthroughs required to get to the next level of AI capability.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

My own view is you probably would.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You generally have always needed scientific breakthroughs to improve things, even if it's a car engine or the way in which you build a bridge.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

But Demis, who knows much more about this than me, will likely say, without putting words in his mouth, we don't know.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

We don't know how far this will go.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

We don't know whether it will necessarily take us there.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So all of those things, I think, are frictions on OpenAI.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They add to the bear case.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They talk about really, really deep scientific and technical risk.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They talk about some market risk.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They talk about general execution risk through which OpenAI needs to sail.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And of course, to the question that's just come in about the recent MIT paper, which, you know, pours cold water on the bull hypothesis.