Azeem Azhar

I'm Azim Azhar, Exponential View.

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Well, what is a bubble?

I mean, that's the $10 trillion question.

And I would say I probably agree with a lot of what Paul said to you.

In my mind, a bubble needs to be defined very, very crisply.

It's not just vibes.

So...

I say it has to have two components.

Number one, there needs to be a significant market correction.

It needs to be beyond the 20% bear market.

It has to be 40%, 50%.

And one that sustains for a long time, the dot-com bubble market correction sustained for 15 years, the housing bubble for seven or eight years.

But the second thing to distinguish this from just speculators getting too excited is

is that the productive capital investment that drove the bubble in the first place also has to decline significantly.

And what we've seen in previous bubbles is it really needs to be 50% or more.

So I'm looking for two tests, a decline in market valuations by at least 50% for a few years, and productive capital for this technology dropping by about 50% again for a few years.