Azeem Azhar

This probably means that we're not going to have a before and after artificial general intelligence moment.

Rather, improvements will get delivered on a smooth-ish curve.

To have a moment of awe, a sense of before and after, I think we will need a

paradigm shift in the way we build and deliver AI models and in what they can actually do.

We have some experience of that because that's exactly what ChatGPT did.

There is a before ChatGPT and after ChatGPT

But that moment came about by something that was rather surprising and surprising to OpenAI itself, which was ChatGPT and how effective it was and how it delivered a new paradigm.

So until we actually get AI systems that are built on that new paradigm that have such a distinct flavor to them, to the systems before, we'll continue to be unimpressed.

And that would be my median expectation of the coming months and couple of years at least as the AI companies roll out better and better systems.

Today, I'd like to speak to you about a question that really got me thinking.

So I was on WhatsApp with my buddy and we were discussing the news that OpenAI is allowing insiders, that is early investors in the companies and employees, to sell up to $10 billion of stock at a $500 billion valuation.

My friend asked me this very pointed and helpful question.

At this price...

Would you be a buyer or seller of OpenAI?

Now, investors have lots of choices when they decide where they should put their money.

That's based on one level, risk and return.

It's based on their worldview.

It's based on building a diversified portfolio that rides out the bad times and wins in the good.

So when my buddy asked me this question about OpenAI, yes, it's about whether I reckon OpenAI's value will go up or down in the coming years, but it's also about the other choices one might have with this sort of notional investment in the firm.

Would you be better off putting your money elsewhere?