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Azeem Azhar

πŸ‘€ Speaker
6819 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Now, given OpenAI is a technology stock, that somewhere else

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Easiest be the NASDAQ index.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It's the stock index that aggregates most of the big tech players.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And so in my interpretation, the real question is, do I think that OpenAI is going to outperform the NASDAQ over the coming years?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Now, what I should remind you is that nothing I'm saying is financial advice, not a red sentiment.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So it's a fun experiment.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

I've been thinking about it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So let's start with some context, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

There is a benchmark here, right?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Over the last decade, the NASDAQ index has returned roughly 13% per year.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It's pretty generous.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Over 15 years, it's returned about 17% a year, nearly 23% over the recent three years as the world has got excited about AI and this new technology.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

What does 17%, that 15-year track record, mean?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It means that roughly every four or five years, if you'd put your money in the NASDAQ, it would double.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Not adjusted for inflation, but just in sort of nominal terms, it would double.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

That's pretty punchy.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

With that punchiness comes some volatility.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Prices on the NASDAQ bounce up and down.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Nothing in life comes for free.