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Azeem Azhar

πŸ‘€ Speaker
6819 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You get the return of the NASDAQ.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You get a pretty excitable stock index.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So if you buy an index like a NASDAQ, which you can do in many different ways, you get a bit of diversification and every single company in that index is a public company subject to the governance and reporting of public companies.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And if you bought that index, it's immediately liquid.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You can take your profits and losses whenever you like.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You know, you could sell when it's a bit high so you could go off and treat yourself to whatever you fancy.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Private companies can't sell their shares.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You can't sell those shares as easily.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

They are somewhat illiquid and they don't have the same infinite information rights or governance controls as you're forced to do on the public markets.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So all of that should add what would consider a risk premium.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

You know, you can't be buying open AI when you could be buying the NASDAQ because, you know, you get the benefits of that diversification and sort of public governance.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

17% is not enough.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It's got to be much more than that.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

It's got to be, I don't know,

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

in the case of this 20, 25%.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So what's going on in OpenAI today is that there's this secondary sale that's allowing insiders to sell about $10 billion of shares reported at a $500 billion valuation.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

Now, if I recall correctly, the last time the company raised money, it was at $300 billion.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

So that's a big step up.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

And within all of that,

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
My OpenAI thought experiment: $500B to $1.5T?

OpenAI is quite a complex beast.