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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
5487 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Now, if you'd gone back and said, well, it's 2004 and Google needs, you know, $300 billion

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

It's going to have $300 billion of revenue.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

That means that every dollar advertisers are spending on digital advertising today, they'll need to spend 50.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Well, that's impossible.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Well, that's the iPhone and chat GPT calculation that the investment bank did a couple of weeks ago.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Markets expand as we bring in new technologies that do things differently, that introduce efficiencies, that introduce new sources of value creation, new sources of exchange.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Another example of that is Uber or the company that was known at the time as Uber Cab.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So when they launched, they talked about going after a particular high-end market and they said, listen, our TAM, our total addressable market,

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

is about a billion dollars.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So if we get 100% of the market we're going after, our revenues will be a billion dollars.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And of course, no one gets 100%.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Now, that's obviously not true.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I mean, that market today is thought of to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And Uber's revenues are much, much higher than a billion dollars a year because new technologies, new innovations, new customer propositions can expand markets.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

just because they're expanding, it doesn't necessarily mean we know who's going to make money.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

We don't know where the profits are going to lie.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And that's particularly true if we move down a layer from general innovations like Uber into general purpose technologies, which are diffused, they spread across the economy in interesting ways.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And it's not clear

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

whether it's going to be the inventor of the technology, the people who build it out, who will capture the profits or someone else.