Beau of The Fifth Column

So today, we're going to talk about must-win governor's races in 2026.

So, it's the midterm year, and all eyes are on the US House of Representatives.

But there's another set of races that are important, but they're likely to be ignored in political analysis at the national level.

Okay, so why is the House important?

Because it's supposed to act as a check on executive power.

Under a Republican majority, it has been shirking that constitutional duty.

There are more than 30 governor's races occurring this year, too.

In our systems, the governors act as a check on federal power, which in our current situation is a proxy for a check on executive power.

Remember, it was the governor's fighting back that pushed Trump to stop deploying troops against Americans.

So, we're going to take a look at a number of races that will probably turn out to be consequential.

The five most we'll be looking at are Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Those are states that Trump won, but have a Democratic governor.

Traditional political math says that means the Republican candidate in those states will have a better chance.

Under Trump, who famously scrambles traditional political math, it'll be a referendum on both his policies and the Republican primary process.

The more MAGA the Republican nominee, the less of a chance they'll probably have.

Georgia is one to truly watch as well.

It's got some unique dynamics.

Republican Governor Brian Kemp is facing term limits.

The Republican side of the aisle has a relatively crowded primary.

And the Democratic primary has Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, and former Lieutenant Governor Jeff Duncan.