Ben Stiller

Yeah, so I would go further. I don't think it's just that mainstream economists have doubts. I would say virtually all economists are concerned beyond skeptical to the point of sort of dismissing the possibility that tariffs, at least as they're being imposed here, could have that effect.

It's not clear that even if you brought back manufacturing production, it would bring back, A, that many jobs, because there's a lot of automation, or B, that the jobs would be all that good. I think the skepticism comes from the idea that these policies could actually achieve those ends.

It's not clear that even if you brought back manufacturing production, it would bring back, A, that many jobs, because there's a lot of automation, or B, that the jobs would be all that good. I think the skepticism comes from the idea that these policies could actually achieve those ends.

Because you can't turn this around on a dime. It takes time to build a factory. It takes time to reorient supply chains. Right now, even a factory here is probably using goods that are brought in from overseas. That can't change overnight. Rather, they're just going to end up shutting down a lot of manufacturers.

Because you can't turn this around on a dime. It takes time to build a factory. It takes time to reorient supply chains. Right now, even a factory here is probably using goods that are brought in from overseas. That can't change overnight. Rather, they're just going to end up shutting down a lot of manufacturers.

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of