Ben Stiller

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.

So I think it is definitely the case that a lot of the economic damage is still sort of fresh enough that a lot of it could be reversed. I mean, indeed, a lot of it hasn't even shown up in the economic data yet. I do think that there are questions about some of the longer run damage that may have already been done, especially when it comes to just business confidence.

So I think it is definitely the case that a lot of the economic damage is still sort of fresh enough that a lot of it could be reversed. I mean, indeed, a lot of it hasn't even shown up in the economic data yet. I do think that there are questions about some of the longer run damage that may have already been done, especially when it comes to just business confidence.

If the president comes out next week and says, never mind about the tariffs, I'm not sure that CEOs are all going to say, well, I guess we're fine then. I think that there are real questions about, well, but could the tariffs be back again a week later? Like, if you can't trust that the rules are the rules, that makes things difficult.

If the president comes out next week and says, never mind about the tariffs, I'm not sure that CEOs are all going to say, well, I guess we're fine then. I think that there are real questions about, well, but could the tariffs be back again a week later? Like, if you can't trust that the rules are the rules, that makes things difficult.

And so, on the one hand, yes, I don't think a recession is baked in. I don't think that the die is cast. But I also am not sure we can say everything can just return absolutely to normal. I do think that we have already seen real changes that are not just going to disappear.

And so, on the one hand, yes, I don't think a recession is baked in. I don't think that the die is cast. But I also am not sure we can say everything can just return absolutely to normal. I do think that we have already seen real changes that are not just going to disappear.

On behalf of all of our listeners, we appreciate it. These were great questions. Thanks for having me.

On behalf of all of our listeners, we appreciate it. These were great questions. Thanks for having me.

It has been a while. Happy to be here.

It has been a while. Happy to be here.

Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, it's worth winding back a little bit to what Trump inherited in the economy. Because by many measures, it was pretty solid, right? Unemployment was low. Job growth was solid. Corporate profits were good, right? There were a lot of things that were pretty good. We know there was one really big thing that was not good, right, which was inflation.

Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, it's worth winding back a little bit to what Trump inherited in the economy. Because by many measures, it was pretty solid, right? Unemployment was low. Job growth was solid. Corporate profits were good, right? There were a lot of things that were pretty good. We know there was one really big thing that was not good, right, which was inflation.

It had gotten a lot better. But we know cost of living had gone up and that was in inflation and it was in housing prices and it was in all sorts of things. And we know that Americans did not feel good about the economy, right? That was a big part of the reason that Trump was brought back to office in the first place.

It had gotten a lot better. But we know cost of living had gone up and that was in inflation and it was in housing prices and it was in all sorts of things. And we know that Americans did not feel good about the economy, right? That was a big part of the reason that Trump was brought back to office in the first place.

So, as you said, when he is elected, there's a surge in optimism among businesses. There's a surge of optimism among many consumers. There was this sense, right, of the economy was actually in pretty good shape, according to the economists. And now it was maybe also in good shape, according to everybody else. And yet, in the last few weeks, all of that has turned around. All of that.