Ben Stiller

So, as you said, when he is elected, there's a surge in optimism among businesses. There's a surge of optimism among many consumers. There was this sense, right, of the economy was actually in pretty good shape, according to the economists. And now it was maybe also in good shape, according to everybody else. And yet, in the last few weeks, all of that has turned around. All of that.

Markets are way down. Consumer confidence is way down. Business confidence, crucially, is way down. And so all of these measures of how consumers, how businesses, how investors feel about the economy have all taken a really sharp turn to the south. Now, that's how people feel. So far, most of the measures of actual activity

Markets are way down. Consumer confidence is way down. Business confidence, crucially, is way down. And so all of these measures of how consumers, how businesses, how investors feel about the economy have all taken a really sharp turn to the south. Now, that's how people feel. So far, most of the measures of actual activity

of what consumers are doing, of what businesses are doing, have not shown that same sharp deterioration.

of what consumers are doing, of what businesses are doing, have not shown that same sharp deterioration.

Yeah, and I think that's particularly a risk in a situation like this where the drop is so sharp and with a very clear set of reasons.

Yeah, and I think that's particularly a risk in a situation like this where the drop is so sharp and with a very clear set of reasons.

So it has, I think, potential effects in two different ways. One is just the direct effect, right? The layoffs of these workers, cancellation of programs, you know, rescinding of grants, right? All of that is real economic activity that has been pulled back. But the second piece of this is the confidence hit, right? Musk and Trump have cut however many thousands of jobs it is at this point.

So it has, I think, potential effects in two different ways. One is just the direct effect, right? The layoffs of these workers, cancellation of programs, you know, rescinding of grants, right? All of that is real economic activity that has been pulled back. But the second piece of this is the confidence hit, right? Musk and Trump have cut however many thousands of jobs it is at this point.

But there are many more thousands of people who work for government contractors, who work for companies that sell to the federal government. And you can imagine all of them and all of their employers are feeling pretty uncertain right now. You look at what's happening in higher education. Major universities saying that they're pausing all hiring, right?

But there are many more thousands of people who work for government contractors, who work for companies that sell to the federal government. And you can imagine all of them and all of their employers are feeling pretty uncertain right now. You look at what's happening in higher education. Major universities saying that they're pausing all hiring, right?

These are, in many cases, good, pretty high-paying, you know, important jobs that then maybe have ripple effects of lots of other jobs.

These are, in many cases, good, pretty high-paying, you know, important jobs that then maybe have ripple effects of lots of other jobs.

It has that potential, certainly within the sectors that are most directly affected, is clearly having a big impact. You can think about it also on these programs, right? If you rely on veterans benefits right now, even if you have not had any difficulty getting your benefits.

It has that potential, certainly within the sectors that are most directly affected, is clearly having a big impact. You can think about it also on these programs, right? If you rely on veterans benefits right now, even if you have not had any difficulty getting your benefits.

And there are rumors about what the impact might be on benefits. Absolutely. Absolutely. So these are all things that can have a sort of disruptive effect and that can lead people to pull back, can lead businesses to pull back on hiring.

And there are rumors about what the impact might be on benefits. Absolutely. Absolutely. So these are all things that can have a sort of disruptive effect and that can lead people to pull back, can lead businesses to pull back on hiring.

Yeah, and in many ways, I think this is the big one. The president has imposed sweeping tariffs on many of our trading partners on a huge range of goods. Now, some of those tariffs have been paused. They've been delayed. They've been canceled, right? But at least in theory, it can cover a huge amount of goods.

Yeah, and in many ways, I think this is the big one. The president has imposed sweeping tariffs on many of our trading partners on a huge range of goods. Now, some of those tariffs have been paused. They've been delayed. They've been canceled, right? But at least in theory, it can cover a huge amount of goods.

And we know from economic research that what happens when you impose tariff rates is a tax on imports. What does that do? It raises prices. And, you know, we often sit here, Michael, and we talk about the research says this, but Americans think this. This is one case where Americans seem to have gotten the message from economists.