Ben Stiller

And we know from economic research that what happens when you impose tariff rates is a tax on imports. What does that do? It raises prices. And, you know, we often sit here, Michael, and we talk about the research says this, but Americans think this. This is one case where Americans seem to have gotten the message from economists.

Because in all of these surveys, it shows people think prices are going to be higher. And they specifically say because of tariffs. And we're seeing that hit in terms of consumers expecting to pay higher prices. We're seeing that in businesses saying they expect to pay higher prices for the materials that go into their goods and then pass on those prices to consumers.

Because in all of these surveys, it shows people think prices are going to be higher. And they specifically say because of tariffs. And we're seeing that hit in terms of consumers expecting to pay higher prices. We're seeing that in businesses saying they expect to pay higher prices for the materials that go into their goods and then pass on those prices to consumers.

And we're seeing at least some evidence of it in actual prices. The Federal Reserve just this week came out and said there's some evidence at least that some of the recent pickup in goods inflation is the result of these tariffs.

And we're seeing at least some evidence of it in actual prices. The Federal Reserve just this week came out and said there's some evidence at least that some of the recent pickup in goods inflation is the result of these tariffs.

Which is what we would expect from the economic research. And I think that it's important to remember here, Trump ran on a platform of curtailing inflation. He even said he would bring down prices. And crucially, Americans who seem to believe him during the campaign that he would bring down prices or control inflation—

Which is what we would expect from the economic research. And I think that it's important to remember here, Trump ran on a platform of curtailing inflation. He even said he would bring down prices. And crucially, Americans who seem to believe him during the campaign that he would bring down prices or control inflation—

are now saying, we're getting nervous that this is going to mean higher prices, higher inflation.

are now saying, we're getting nervous that this is going to mean higher prices, higher inflation.

That's right. We've seen a real shift in messaging from the president himself and from members of his administration over the past couple of weeks. Trump occasionally would acknowledge on the campaign trail maybe prices would come up temporarily under tariffs. But for the most part, right, what he was talking about was my policies are going to turn around the economy on day one.

That's right. We've seen a real shift in messaging from the president himself and from members of his administration over the past couple of weeks. Trump occasionally would acknowledge on the campaign trail maybe prices would come up temporarily under tariffs. But for the most part, right, what he was talking about was my policies are going to turn around the economy on day one.

But over the last couple of weeks — There's an adjustment. We'll see whether there's pain. — union members of his administration have started talking about a period of adjustment.

But over the last couple of weeks — There's an adjustment. We'll see whether there's pain. — union members of his administration have started talking about a period of adjustment.

— A period of detox, a period of pain.

— A period of detox, a period of pain.

Yet he has notably refused to rule out the possibility of a recession, as have members of his administration. And look, economists would say you should never rule out the possibility of a recession, so that's not inherently unreasonable. But the tone has really shifted here from one of things will turn around on day one to there may be this period of pain, but it will pay off in the long run.

Yet he has notably refused to rule out the possibility of a recession, as have members of his administration. And look, economists would say you should never rule out the possibility of a recession, so that's not inherently unreasonable. But the tone has really shifted here from one of things will turn around on day one to there may be this period of pain, but it will pay off in the long run.

And it's worth highlighting here, if this recession happened, it would be specifically because of his policies, right? It would be his tariffs, his uncertainty that's generating the pullback in activity that leads to the recession. That's something presidents often try to avoid even saying the word recession. And here he's talking about potentially causing one. Right.

And it's worth highlighting here, if this recession happened, it would be specifically because of his policies, right? It would be his tariffs, his uncertainty that's generating the pullback in activity that leads to the recession. That's something presidents often try to avoid even saying the word recession. And here he's talking about potentially causing one. Right.

So, you know, I asked this question to a lot of economists over the past couple of weeks. And people will say, in theory, the idea of short-term pain for long-term gain can be reasonable, right? This is harsh medicine, but we need it. But you better be darn certain. of the long-term gain.