Ben Stiller

Yeah, it was, you know, brutal. It has come back up since that sum. I make no prediction about where it goes, but it may be worth Tracy's while to take a look and see where things are now because you don't necessarily have to keep all that money in the stock market, right?

Yeah, it was, you know, brutal. It has come back up since that sum. I make no prediction about where it goes, but it may be worth Tracy's while to take a look and see where things are now because you don't necessarily have to keep all that money in the stock market, right?

You can keep it within that 529 plan and put it into something a little bit safer, which if she needs the money soon could be a safer bet.

You can keep it within that 529 plan and put it into something a little bit safer, which if she needs the money soon could be a safer bet.

But I think that the larger point here is this is painful. These are real consequences. And not everybody has the luxury of just saying, oh, if we wait a while, things will get better. We've heard a lot from the president about, oh, short-term pain is going to yield some sort of long-term gain.

But I think that the larger point here is this is painful. These are real consequences. And not everybody has the luxury of just saying, oh, if we wait a while, things will get better. We've heard a lot from the president about, oh, short-term pain is going to yield some sort of long-term gain.

But if your kid's going to college today, if your baby is due in a few months, right, you can't necessarily plan your life for the long term. And that's a real pain point that a lot of people are going to be experiencing. Right.

But if your kid's going to college today, if your baby is due in a few months, right, you can't necessarily plan your life for the long term. And that's a real pain point that a lot of people are going to be experiencing. Right.

Yeah, so I would go further. I don't think it's just that mainstream economists have doubts. I would say virtually all economists are concerned beyond skeptical to the point of sort of dismissing the possibility that tariffs, at least as they're being imposed here, could have that effect.

Yeah, so I would go further. I don't think it's just that mainstream economists have doubts. I would say virtually all economists are concerned beyond skeptical to the point of sort of dismissing the possibility that tariffs, at least as they're being imposed here, could have that effect.

It's not clear that even if you brought back manufacturing production, it would bring back, A, that many jobs, because there's a lot of automation, or B, that the jobs would be all that good. I think the skepticism comes from the idea that these policies could actually achieve those ends.

It's not clear that even if you brought back manufacturing production, it would bring back, A, that many jobs, because there's a lot of automation, or B, that the jobs would be all that good. I think the skepticism comes from the idea that these policies could actually achieve those ends.

Because you can't turn this around on a dime. It takes time to build a factory. It takes time to reorient supply chains. Right now, even a factory here is probably using goods that are brought in from overseas. That can't change overnight. Rather, they're just going to end up shutting down a lot of manufacturers.

Because you can't turn this around on a dime. It takes time to build a factory. It takes time to reorient supply chains. Right now, even a factory here is probably using goods that are brought in from overseas. That can't change overnight. Rather, they're just going to end up shutting down a lot of manufacturers.

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

So I would say, first of all, I don't think a recession is inevitable. For one thing, these policies could be reversed again, right? We've already seen a lot of back and forth.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

A deal could be reached with China. It's not clear where things will end up. It's not clear that these tariffs would inevitably lead to a recession on their own. I think they're clearly going to lead to higher prices. They're clearly going to lead to slower growth. But that doesn't necessarily translate into a full-blown recession.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.

And most of the economists that I talk to say that if there is a recession, it has the potential to be a comparatively mild one. This isn't 2008 where we have this huge housing bubble that's then going to collapse. It's not a global pandemic in the same way. So there's some optimism for you. Now let me undermine it. I would say a couple of things.