Ben Stiller

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

I mean, one, even a mild recession is really painful for a lot of people. If you lose your job, there can be long-term consequences from that. It also seems like there are some things about this potential recession or even potential slowdown that could be tougher than some in the past. This combination of higher prices and slower growth is a really tough combination to navigate.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

And it's also not clear that there's going to be a lot of help there. If you think back to 2008 and 2009 or you think back to the pandemic, we had enhanced unemployment benefits and we had checks that went out to people. Right. It's not clear that a lot of that help is going to be there this time around. And then there are the bigger risks that are hard to quantify and hard to be sure about.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

But, you know, we've seen some real turmoil in the financial markets over the past several weeks, fears of what's happening in the bond market, fears of what's happening with the dollar. But I think there are real questions that are being asked about sort of the long-term stability of the financial system, of the U.S. economy, the U.S. 's place in the global economy.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

And it's hard to predict where that goes, but at a minimum, you've got to be concerned that we could be sowing the seeds of some much deeper long-run problems that could show up in unpredictable and potentially pretty disastrous ways down the road.

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of

You know, if you look at what the president has done in his first months in office, he's picked fights not just with adversaries, but with allies. He's called into question fundamental alliances, military and economic. He has at least floated questions about Fed independence, about the sanctity of the treasury market. There are a lot of

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

hard to pin down, but worrying questions that we're seeing are leading investors, they're leading leaders of other countries to start to think twice about the role that the U.S. is playing. And I know that this sort of sounds a little bit esoteric. I know that this sounds a little bit hard to pin down, and it is hard to pin down. I can't sit here and give you

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.

a super specific scenario about what this looks like. But the bedrock of the global financial system for decades now has been that the U.S. is the world's strongest and most solid economy, that it pays its debts, that it meets its obligations. And I don't want to say that that is no longer true, but we have certainly seen some cracks in the confidence in that.

So I think it is definitely the case that a lot of the economic damage is still sort of fresh enough that a lot of it could be reversed. I mean, indeed, a lot of it hasn't even shown up in the economic data yet. I do think that there are questions about some of the longer run damage that may have already been done, especially when it comes to just business confidence.

So I think it is definitely the case that a lot of the economic damage is still sort of fresh enough that a lot of it could be reversed. I mean, indeed, a lot of it hasn't even shown up in the economic data yet. I do think that there are questions about some of the longer run damage that may have already been done, especially when it comes to just business confidence.

If the president comes out next week and says, never mind about the tariffs, I'm not sure that CEOs are all going to say, well, I guess we're fine then. I think that there are real questions about, well, but could the tariffs be back again a week later? Like, if you can't trust that the rules are the rules, that makes things difficult.

If the president comes out next week and says, never mind about the tariffs, I'm not sure that CEOs are all going to say, well, I guess we're fine then. I think that there are real questions about, well, but could the tariffs be back again a week later? Like, if you can't trust that the rules are the rules, that makes things difficult.

And so, on the one hand, yes, I don't think a recession is baked in. I don't think that the die is cast. But I also am not sure we can say everything can just return absolutely to normal. I do think that we have already seen real changes that are not just going to disappear.

And so, on the one hand, yes, I don't think a recession is baked in. I don't think that the die is cast. But I also am not sure we can say everything can just return absolutely to normal. I do think that we have already seen real changes that are not just going to disappear.