Benedict Evans

So Microsoft kind of lost that opportunity.

And so that would be the concern for Apple would be you'll still buy your new iPhone and you'll buy the iPhone Air this autumn because it will be center and lighter and it will be a lovely phone and you'll use it to do chat GPT.

But the counter argument would be to say, yeah, you'll use it to do chat GPT and DoorDash and Uber and Instagram and that cool new game and the other new cool game that's enabled by LLMs and to do TikTok and to do and, and, and, and, and, and it will be kind of the same except they'll... So there's a sort of, you said what I mean, there's this sort of slight fuzziness around what the bear case for Apple actually is.

Does it sort of end up like Microsoft did?

How bad is that exactly?

What does that mean?

If we all go to wearing something like this, that's lit up by AI, then that's a bigger shift.

But it's very unclear how close that really is, just to the optics.

There's another axis here, which is what happens to Google search?

Where does that money go?

How do you map the search activity that goes to an LLM and how do you map that against where the revenue is?

And also from the other side, how do you map that against where the publishers are?

How do you think about whether you just shift your habit and you're actually using ChatGPT as Google?

It's basically doing what Google does, but you've shifted the brand and you're going to that search box instead of the other search box.

I don't think you can count them out in absorbing that in.

Well, then there's a valuation question.

And a long time ago, I was a public markets analyst and I was bad at being a public markets analyst, equities analyst for a bunch of reasons.

One of which was I was never interested in share prices.

It's hard to see iPhone sales slipping from what we see now.

Even half the cool, sexy Google stuff is in the Google app on the iPhone.