Benedict Evans

Mm-hmm.

I think Meta and Google, there is this sort of big question around where the ad revenue goes and how much the ad revenue gets pulled away to different places.

I think Instagram is probably in a very good place in terms of changing what advertising looks like and how that works.

I mean, I had a slide in my presentation, which was like,

What Meta and Amazon want to do is to make LLM's commodity info that's sold at cost.

This is why Meta made it open source, because they want to make it commodity info that's sold at cost, and they differentiate on top with Meta stuff, with Facebook, social, Instagram-y stuff, and they want the model itself to be just infrastructure.

Amazon would also like it to be commodity infrastructure that sold its cost because that's what AWS is.

They sell commodity infrastructure at cost and they do it better than anybody else.

And they make a lot of money from doing that.

Go to Amazon's financials and basically all the money comes from AWS and the ads.

People who complain about AWS don't realize the ads make it.

Amazon did $50 billion, $60 billion of ad revenue last year.

So Amazon seems to be fine, but there's a bunch of stuff to navigate around.

How does this change how people buy stuff on Amazon?

Who does that leave?

Microsoft.

It was this line from Bismarck that the great man is somebody who hears God's footsteps through history and grabs onto his coat as he walks past.

And like Satya is like tried to, first of all, he tried to grab onto VR and AR with HoloLens saying that we don't talk about that anymore.

Now it's AI, their own models are not really ranking.

I mean, they hired Mustafa, but like they're still struggling.