Benedict Evans

They've got this weird contentious relationship with Sam Altman and OpenAI and it's basically not their models.

On the other hand, like they're going to sell an awful lot of Azure to run all this stuff.

Which, again, is this tension.

Is it that everybody just uses ChatGPT to do the thing, or is it that someone is going to come to you with a great accounting product to run Farnam Street, and it runs on Azure, and it uses some LLM.

Who cares which one it is?

It's just better.

You know, you can edge to your bank and it does the cool stuff and you can edge to that and it does the cool stuff.

You know, my use case for an LLM is do my fucking invoicing for me.

It's not even that.

It's work out why exactly it is that that client's ERP doesn't like my bank account.

and not have me spend the next three months bouncing emails back and forth with somebody in India about one second on getting this done.

That would be a great use case.

LLMs can't do that yet.

If they could, that would be great.

But we're not there yet.

So Microsoft and Google are in this sort of position of being the incumbent.

Both, you know, how can I put this, give you a more systematic, again, I'm sort of thinking my way through to the answer to your question.

For Google and Microsoft, they have an incumbent business that is potentially disrupted pretty profoundly by this, but they also have a cloud business that sells all the new stuff for this.

Amazon has an incumbent business that doesn't get disrupted by this, at least much less obviously, and a cloud business that will be very happy selling all of this stuff.

Meta doesn't have a cloud business selling this stuff and has a bunch of new ways to make money from all of this new stuff, except they've got to have some better models.