Benedict Evans

Apple...

Is this a competitive threat to the iOS ecosystem?

A lot of stuff would have to happen first.

And they'd have to drop a lot more balls before that was to happen.

And meanwhile, they're still going to sell you the nicest glowing rectangle to do all of this stuff.

and then we're talking about glasses and vr which is a whole other two-hour conversation about and when does that happen there's still people poking around in crypto like web three web three remember maybe that someone said that people still working on crypto are like those japanese soldiers on islands in the pacific you don't know the war's over um but there's still people working on crypto so that's like another disruptive thing coming down the pipe who are the other incumbents um netflix is a tv company it was a car company elon musk

There's a whole Tesla conversation fascinates me because Tesla bears balls think it's a software company and Tesla bears think it's a car company.

And at the moment, it's a car company.

I mean, yes, they launched autonomous driving.

But what did they launch?

They launched half a dozen existing model cars with test drivers doing a geofence drive that everyone else was doing 10 years ago.

Is that going to scale?

Are they finally going to get the flywheel of having all the camera data, meaning they will work with just cameras?

There's a conversation you could have asked 10 years ago.

In fact, I wrote stuff 10 years ago.

Are there winner-takes-all effects in autonomous cars?

Will Tesla get it working with cameras before everybody else gets it working with LiDAR?

Well, Waymo's got it working with 50 grand of LiDAR or whatever that stack costs.

It's tens of thousands of dollars of extra stuff on the car.

So they've got it working with all of that stuff.