Benedict Evans

The other side of it is that film was this high margin product where they had a bunch of unique intellectual property and digital cameras are a low margin commodity where they were competing with the entire consumer electronics industry with no differentiation.

And so even if they go, even at the point being, even if you go all in into that market, it's still a crappy market where you've got no differentiation.

So you can kind of, you know, you can kind of put all of these things on the table and shuffle them around and say, well, in hindsight, obviously BlackBerry was screwed.

And in hindsight, obviously Google was going to be able to make the jump.

And in hindsight, in hindsight, and...

Yeah, maybe.

So I think I'd be nervous about knowing what the margins are in AI because we've had, you know, depending on who you ask, like the price to get a given result has probably come down by two orders of magnitude.

But then that was the state of the art two years ago.

And now there's a new thing, which is more extensive.

And so there's an awful lot of kind of shifting planes and shifting, you know, there's a lot of algebra and all the variables and the algebra are all changing at the moment.

So it's kind of hard to quite to know what that is.

I think the obvious Google threat right now is that Google shows you a bunch of links and results and ideas.

And those could now be solved in a different way.

Well, let me kind of go back a second.

The very high level threat to Google is that you have this moment of discontinuity in which everybody resets their priors and reconsiders their defaults.

And so it's no longer just the default that you go and use Google.

And for this search or that search, like maybe Bing is 10% better on that search.

In fact, as we saw from the Google TAC trial last year, actually, Google is still the best search engine by quite a long margin relative to the other traditional search engines.

But what we have now is like a reset of the playing field.

And Google has a whole bunch of advantages as to why they might win in that playing field.