Benjamin Todd
speaker
4,140 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2023
last heard 28 May
Benjamin Todd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.
Appearances
I don't know, but when I was in the Bay Area in February talking to people about this, I was pretty shocked to find many of the people who seem to have the best track records of forecasting AI to me were saying, well, it could be a 10% chance we reach this point this year.
I wasn't really thinking, oh, it literally could be this year that an intelligence explosion would start.
And then the chance of a couple of years later is even greater still.
So Jack Clark recently published a piece about
arguing that there's a 60% chance that AI R&D is automated by the end of 2028.
Wow.
Which I think reflects the views of many people actually in the labs themselves doing this research because
Yeah, he's at Anthropic.
But it's not just people at Anthropic.
I've heard this from people at DeepMind as well and OpenAI that they just really feel like these tools are really helping them and doing more and more independently and autonomously.
And they can just kind of like see this process.
They just draw the trend lines forward a few years and it seems like it could be really speeding up our research.
Even if we just extrapolate revenue growth forward three years, it kind of seems to imply we get something like AGI in three or four years' time from now.
Anthropic's been growing their revenue 10 times per year for three years, which is already completely insane.
But in the first quarter of this year, they actually grew at an annualized rate of 80 times per year.
even on a base of already $10 billion or so of revenue, which is probably the fastest a company of that size has ever grown, just due to the huge demand for these more agentic tools.
There's like various memes about how dumb it is to just like do trend extrapolation that like,
oh, like my baby has grown this much in the first year.
So like, it's going to be like 10 foot tall in like one more year from now, which is like, obviously isn't how things work.
But then I think like just saying, oh yes, well, it is an S curve and it will plateau at some point.
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