Benjamin Todd
speaker
4,140 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2023
last heard 28 May
Benjamin Todd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.
Appearances
That is true, but it's not very helpful because we don't know where it will plateau.
And it might plateau at vast super intelligence that's spreading out over the galaxy, which is not very helpful.
Yeah, you're absolutely right that...
As we produce more and more computing power, it becomes harder and harder, which wouldn't mean that progress would halt, but it would mean that it could slow down a bunch from here.
I find it useful to think in terms of three key scenarios for what might happen.
The first being that basically the people at the frontier companies are right and they are going to get an automated AI researcher within a couple of years and then that could start an algorithmic feedback loop and you're getting more general purpose AGI
perhaps in like 2030 or even 2028, 2029.
And then the next scenario is that like, well, okay, this is basically happening, but those people are being a bit over-optimistic and they're not quite accounting for all of the bottlenecks that will happen.
And then maybe, and then, you know, compute growth will slow down a little bit and that could really push this automated AI researcher into the early 30s.
So that's like a slightly slower, but still very crazy timeline.
And then the third scenario is basically the current paradigm kind of runs out fairly soon.
And then compute scaling becomes too expensive.
And then you could have quite a long plateau, potentially several decades.
That would be like the slowest scenario.
So yeah, which of those we're in does have a big effect.
The main ways it has an effect is the longer you have, the better it is to build career capital and to explore lots of options.
Some people say in these short scenarios, these are the craziest, most dangerous scenarios.
It's when AGA happens when the world is the least woken up.
so we're the least prepared.
And so those are much more impactful scenarios to work on.
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