Benjamin Todd
speaker
4,140 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2023
last heard 28 May
Benjamin Todd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.
Appearances
So you should just basically act as if we're in the short scenario and just do whatever would be best in that.
And if we're not, well, you can figure out some other stuff to do in the medium scenario.
You probably haven't burned too many bridges.
Right.
Depending on exactly what you're doing.
Don't get too crazy.
And then there's a bit of a counterposition, which is that
I mean, especially imagine if you're a college student right now and you're like, well, I've just started college.
If there's going to be AGI in 2029, like I might not even graduated yet.
And so it's like hard for me to do anything.
So for most people, they actually have more ability to help in these slightly
more medium term scenarios.
And like that could be a big effect because say like the difference between being a fresh college graduate and then someone who spent 10 years working their way up government and now is in like a really influential position.
They have a much, they have much more ability to help with things, maybe like 10 times, 100 times more.
And so that could actually mean like, well, it's better to gamble on the medium term scenario because you'll be in such a better position to help that you'll actually have more impact by doing that, even though there's a chance that you're too late and you don't actually help in time.
And if you kind of take the average of these two views, it implies that you should basically act as if like, not that the short scenario is happening, but like one a little bit longer than that.
Because basically like your ability to help is curving up, but the leverage and neglectedness of AI is going down.
And it's like where those two cross is like the optimal year for your impact.
So, okay, but it does more practical level.
I think most people shouldn't just think, well, it's like it's three years or nothing and act as if like nothing beyond that matters.
Showing 341–360 of 4,140 · page 18 of 207
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