Bill Ackman
speaker
1,217 appearances
6 recordings
6 series
first heard Feb 2024
last heard 3 Jun
Bill Ackman’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 2.
Appearances
That's usually a pretty good sign about the mode around the business. So, you know, you'd open your computer and you open your search and very high percentage of the world starts with a Google page and a one line where you type in your search. You know, the Google advertising search YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant franchises in the world.
Very difficult to disrupt, extremely profitable. The world is moving from offline advertising to online advertising, and that trend, I think, continues. Why? Because you can actually see whether your ads work. You know, they used to say about advertising, you know,
You spend a fortune and you just don't know which 50% of it works, but you just sort of spend the money because you know ultimately that's going to bring in the customer. And now with online advertising, you can see with granularity which dollars I'm spending.
When people click on the search term and end up buying something and I pay, it's a very high return on investment for the advertiser and they really dominate that market. Now, AI, of course, is a risk. If all of a sudden people start searching or asking questions of ChatGPT and don't start with the Google search bar, that's a risk to the company.
And so our view, based on work we had done and talked to industry experts, is that Google, if anything, by virtue of the investment they've made, the time, the energy that people put into it, We felt their AI capabilities were, if anything, potentially greater than Microsoft Chat GPT and that the market had overreacted.
And because Google, you know, is a big company, global business, regulators scrutinize it incredibly carefully. They couldn't take some of the same liberties a startup like OpenAI did in releasing a product. And I think Google took a more cautious approach in releasing an early version of BARD in terms of its capabilities. And that let Lamarck the world to believe that they were behind.
And we ultimately concluded they're tied or ahead, and you're paying nothing for that potential business. And they also have huge advantages. You think of all the data Google has, like the search data, all the various applications, email and otherwise, and the Google suite of products. It's an incredible data set. So they have more training data than pretty much any company in the world.
They have incredible engineers. They have enormous financial resources. So that was kind of the bet. And we still think it's probably the cheapest of the big seven companies in terms of the price you're paying for the business relative to its current earnings. It also is a business that has a lot of potential for efficiency.
You know, sometimes when you have this enormously profitable dominant company, All of the technology companies in the post-March 20 world grew enormously in terms of their teams, and they probably overhired. You've seen some, the Facebooks of the world, and now even Google, starting to get a little more efficient in terms of their operations. We paid a low multiple for the business.
One way to think about the value of the business is the price you pay for the earnings. Or alternatively, what's the yield? If you flip over the price over the earnings, it gives you kind of the yield of the business. So a 15 multiple is about almost a 7.5% yield. And that earnings yield is growing over time as the business grows.
That's compared to what you can earn lending your money to the government, 4%. That's a very attractive going in yield. And then there's all kinds of what we call optionality in all the various businesses and investments they've made that are losing money. They've got a cloud business that's growing very rapidly, but they're investing basically 100% of the profits from that business in growth.
So you're in that earnings number, you're not seeing any earnings from the cloud business. And they're one of the top cloud players. So very interesting, generally well-managed company with incredible assets and resources and dominance. And it has no debt. It's got a ton of cash. And so pretty good story.
Absolutely. That's a great question. Business investing is about finding companies that can't be disrupted. AI is the ultimate disruptible asset or technology. And that's what makes investing treacherous is that you own a business that's enormously profitable, management gets, if you will, fat and happy. And then a new technology emerges that just takes away all their profitability.
And AI is this incredibly powerful tool, which is why every business is saying, how can I use AI in my business to make us more profitable, more successful, grow faster, and also disrupt or protect ourself from the, you know, the incomings. You know, it's a bit like, you know, Buffett talks about technology.
A great business like a castle surrounded by this really wide moat, but you have all these barbarians trying to get in and steal the princess. And it happens. Kodak, for example, was an amazing, incredibly dominant company until it disappeared. Polaroid, this incredible technology. And that's why we have tended to stay away from companies that are technology companies.
Because technology companies, generally, the world is such a dynamic place that someone's always working on a better version. And, you know, Kodak was caught up in the analog film world. And then the world changed.
I think you've seen a lot of that in the last year. And I would say some combination of embarrassment and pride are huge motivators for everyone from Sergey Brin to the management of the company.
So as I like to say, incentives drive all human behavior. And that certainly applies in the business world. So understanding the people and what drives them and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business are very important part of the analysis for investing in a company. And you can learn a lot.
You know, I mentioned before, one great way to learn about a business is go back a decade and read everything that management has written about the business and see what they've done over time. See what they've said. You know, conference calls are actually, you know, relatively recent experiences. When I started in the business, there weren't conference call transcripts.
Now you have a written record of everything management has said in response to questions from analysts at conferences and otherwise. You learn a lot about people by listening to what they say, how they answer questions, and ultimately their track record for doing what they say they're going to do. Do they under-promise and over-deliver? Do they over-promise and under-deliver?
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