Bill Gurley
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
As I answer it, I want to highlight one of two last things I wanted to get on the table.
And that is that time is a massive problem.
we're moving the time to liquidity of these companies from five to seven years to 10 to 15 years.
I don't know the exact number.
And I think every LP is aware of that.
I think I forwarded you this NVCA graph and in there it has the percentage of
of committed funds that's paid back in the five to 10 year window of a venture fund.
And it used to average 20%.
It's been as high as 30.
And it got down to five last year.
And it's in the five to seven range, which hints at the big LP liquidity problem.
But it's a problem for GPs too.
The reason time is such a massive problem is you have the cost of capital, the IRR that just eats away.
And everyone loved to say, oh, it's not IRR, it's DPI.
But if time doubles, it is IRR.
That's what really matters.
And in addition to that time, the cost of capital, you have dilution.
So every one of these zombie unicorns is diluting
three, four, five, 6% a year on equity issuance to the employee base.
And when you combine those two, it's a real problem.