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Bill Gurley

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
1278 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

As I answer it, I want to highlight one of two last things I wanted to get on the table.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And that is that time is a massive problem.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

we're moving the time to liquidity of these companies from five to seven years to 10 to 15 years.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

I don't know the exact number.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And I think every LP is aware of that.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

I think I forwarded you this NVCA graph and in there it has the percentage of

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

of committed funds that's paid back in the five to 10 year window of a venture fund.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And it used to average 20%.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

It's been as high as 30.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And it got down to five last year.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And it's in the five to seven range, which hints at the big LP liquidity problem.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

But it's a problem for GPs too.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

The reason time is such a massive problem is you have the cost of capital, the IRR that just eats away.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And everyone loved to say, oh, it's not IRR, it's DPI.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

But if time doubles, it is IRR.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

That's what really matters.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And in addition to that time, the cost of capital, you have dilution.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

So every one of these zombie unicorns is diluting

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

three, four, five, 6% a year on equity issuance to the employee base.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Bill Gurley - The Gift and The Curse of Staying Private - [Invest Like the Best, EP.427]

And when you combine those two, it's a real problem.