Bill Gurley

Let's say you were expecting to get $100 back from an investment in year 10, and you want to delay it to year 15.

If you just take that 10% compounding, it now needs to be worth $160 in year 15.

If you make the argument that

these people invested in venture to get a big return, then your cost of capital is not five.

That's the risk-free rate.

It's 15.

And then it's 20% a year, 15 plus the five from the equity dilution.

And now if you wait five more years, guess how much money you need instead of $100?

$250.

for a five-year delay, just to meet the same return expectation people had of the asset class.

So that's a real problem.

It's also not clear to me, I think there were a certain number of companies that were either acquired or went public in a stage, and then Entropy exists, all companies,

have trouble growing over the very long term.

And once again, I think you're taking that window out.

People love to talk about if you take out the big winner, what's the return of the fund?

But I haven't asked anyone the question, well, what if you keep the big winner, but get rid of everything else?

Because that feels like where we're headed.

That's a long way of saying, I really don't know the answer to your question.

I spent my whole career in early stage and I still love that time period.

And I think it's the time window where you can make the biggest bet and have the biggest outcome.