Bob Kagan

They want us out of the Western Pacific and East Asia, and we are heading in that direction.

But I think I really do want to focus a little on the Gulf itself, because at the end of the day, there's going to be some basic objective reality that is going to be inescapable.

And that is that the United States, at the end of this conflict,

unless some kind of extraordinary event happens and Iran just collapses and becomes a friendly country within the next three weeks, where we're going to be left is we will have been substantially pushed out of the Middle East and Persian Gulf.

That is the net consequence of this.

Because if when we quit, as Trump claims, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed,

That means the rest of the world is now going to have to negotiate with Iran on exactly how the Strait of Hormuz will be operated going forward.

And Iran will no longer have to fear further American attack because we will have absented ourselves.

Therefore, the balance of power will have shifted in Iran's favor.

But more than that.

it will have shifted particularly in China's favor, because standing behind Iran in these negotiations over how the strait will be run will be China.

And Iran is already talking about asking other countries to pay for transit through the strait in yuan, in Chinese yuan, which will basically, you know, strengthen the Chinese yuan against the American dollar and undermine the petrodollar system, etc.

JVL has a great

piece on this, which is 100% right, except for one thing, which we can get to.

But that is the situation that we're going to be left with.

We will have gone from being the dominant player in this region, which is the region that controls the world oil supply to a large extent, and certainly the world oil price.

We will go from having been the dominant player to one of several players, maybe, or we will basically have lost our influence in the region.

That is going to be the net result of this conflict.

No, we are enunciating it brilliantly.

And it is a central contradiction at the heart of this whole operation.