Brad Gerstner

speaker

3,957 appearances 19 recordings 4 series first heard Apr 2025 last heard 4d ago

Brad Gerstner’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 17 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 4.

Appearances

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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg · Brad Gerstner: No AI Bubble, Semis Eat the Nasdaq & AI's Take Off Problem · 17 Sep 2026 podcast

We're borrowing money in order to stand up these data centers.

So the hurdle rate for that money is going up.

And so that's not only a challenge for data centers, but remember, you know, as Warren Buffett says that, you know, interest rates are to stocks, what gravity is to matter.

If you can earn 5.5% or 6% on your money without taking equity risk, then it's going to be a challenge for stocks.

So here's where I think we are, and we're going to end on this slide, and then we'll bring the guys out and chop it up a little bit.

But this is the flight path.

This is how I think about managing the portfolio.

right?

We're up about, the NASDAQ's up about 15%, but as I sit here and think about the risk, do I want to be small, medium, or large?

This is how I think about the fan of potential outcomes.

If the monthly AI lab revenues are closer to that $8 billion number, I think it's takeoff.

I think we are gonna see an IPO this year.

And so I'm paying very close attention to what in fact are those monthly revenue numbers.

I think the trends are intact, but we will see.

That's gonna be the single most important thing as to whether or not between now and the end of the year, we have liftoff.

Second one is rates, the election, oil prices.

Obviously rates are following oil prices to a certain extent.

So what happens there, if rates were to go to five and a half on the 10 year, that's gonna be a big burden

uh you know on on the equity market then finally the regulation the anthropic ipo we saw a trade down yesterday because people are concerned that maybe we're going to have a halt or or postponement that would obviously be a major issue i don't think that's going to happen but again that would be a concern so that's the fan of potential outcomes from here we're up 15 i think we could go higher uh you know through the balance of the year or we could go lower i'll leave you with this

The period of 2023 to 2025, you only had to get one thing right.

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