Brad Gerstner

If you lack conviction and sell when these things are down, I'm going to bet on the super cycle, but I'm betting over a much longer period of time than most people.

And amongst the startups out there, they basically believe Claude is not trying to take their business.

And Claude has been very careful to say, hey, we're not going to encroach into the application layer.

So, all right.

Yeah.

Can I say again, those numbers are- If it's real.

Yeah, as reported by the information.

But what I would say about that is this.

I've been forecasting companies for 25 years.

I know the numbers today.

Sam just told us $20 billion run rate end of the year for OpenAI.

Everybody who is forecasting three years out on these companies is totally guessing.

right?

Like, that's why I said time is on your side if you're betting over a five to 10 year horizon.

But if you think with precision that the company itself can forecast what's going to be happening in three years, I think you're misleading yourself, right?

So we'll see.

I think it's going to be a lot bigger, could be even bigger than those numbers.

But, you know, those forecasts are highly uncertain because the rate of growth has never been seen before.

I think you have to build in an expense structure that has the flexibility.

So if the numbers don't show up, that you have the ability to extend your, you know, your obligation.