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Brad Gerstner

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2921 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

I think Sam's in his head saying, I believe, and he says multiple times on the pod, we're gonna have revenues in excess of $100 billion.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

And the 1.4 trillion, it's super important to remember, this is over a period of five or six years.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

I estimate about half of that spending is going to be borne by the partners.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

So now we're talking $700 billion in spending.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

Spread that over five or six years.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

In the out years, you're probably talking about $150 billion of CapEx to OpenAI.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

So he's probably sitting there saying, and he said, we're going to have over $100 billion of revenue.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

So if we have $150 billion of revenue and $150 billion in CapEx, now it begins to pencil out a little bit more.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

But importantly, he said,

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

And if we don't have those revenues, we've got to match our revenues to our expenses, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

I think they will just extend, recut the deals in order to make those expenses doable for the company.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

This is an important point because we don't know, we haven't seen these actual deals.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

And if they have conditions or outs, or if they can push it out or they can cancel it, maybe they have... And that will come out, I guess, in the public filings.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

But putting all that aside...

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

the market was not happy about this Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, core weave, who all are the partners we're talking about, who are close to and when you see these charts of all the deals Sam has done, and Sam's a great dealmaker, obviously, they were all down six to 20%.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

So this has, in fact, been a significant correction

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

in terms of the AI boom.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

So before we get into their CFOs comments, Chamath, I'd love to hear your just general response.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

Yeah, and this got exacerbated, Sachs, because on Wednesday, OpenAI decided to be in the news again when their CFO, Sarah Fryer, told the Wall Street Journal she hopes the U.S.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option

government, that's you, Sachs, will backstop the financing of its $1.4 trillion in data centers.