All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Does OpenAI Need a Bailout? Mamdani Wins, Socialism Rising, Filibuster Nuclear Option
07 Nov 2025
(0:00) Brad Gerstner joins the show! (0:49) OpenAI's rough week: Altman's controversial comments on BG2, CFO's "federal backstop" faux pas, clarifications (18:33) Why Jensen Huang said "China is going to win the AI race."; the need for a federal framework on AI (30:39) OpenAI's strengths and headwinds: breakout product, trust issues, competition, betting on the AI supercycle (36:47) Holiday party announcement! allin.com/events for tickets (39:19) State of the market, consumer is cracking, need for domestic/"main street" wins, is Trump losing the middle class? (1:05:58) Zohran wins NYC, socialism's rise in America, solutions, should Republicans end the filibuster? Join us at the All-In Holiday Spectacular!: https://allin.com/events Follow Brad: https://x.com/altcap Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg Intro Video Credit: https://x.com/TheZachEffect Referenced in the show: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/alphabet-google-q3-earnings.html https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/meta-q3-earnings-report-2025.html https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-05/apple-plans-to-use-1-2-trillion-parameter-google-gemini-model-to-power-new-siri https://www.wsj.com/video/openai-wants-federal-backstop-for-new-investments/4F6C864C-7332-448B-A9B4-66C321E60FE7 https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7392049356012507136/ https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1986476840207122440 https://x.com/sama/status/1986514377470845007 https://www.ft.com/content/53295276-ba8d-4ec2-b0de-081e73b3ba43 https://x.com/nvidianewsroom/status/1986221177099194484 https://www.aipanic.news/p/the-ai-existential-risk-industrial https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://x.com/MorningBrew/status/1986464568470888935 https://x.com/chamath/status/1986076707196162068 https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2025-elections/new-york-city-mayor-results https://x.com/JDVance/status/1986099131845136594 https://x.com/houmanhemmati/status/1980499276229931034
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Brad Gerstner's here joining us hot after crashing the stock market and popping the AI bubble.
Chapter 2: What challenges did OpenAI face this week?
Well done, Brad. We're going to get into it. All of our portfolios, thank you, rolled down 15% this week.
Can we ask OpenAI to just put a moratorium on any more public statements or appearances for another couple months?
Good job, Brad. You decided you'd be a podcaster. You're like, hey, let me ask a couple of hard questions here. And you popped the AI bubble.
Yeah, something like that. Do as I say, not as I do. Are we getting into it?
Because I think it is interesting, actually. Oh, it's super interesting.
Super interesting.
Let's get it. Sam, of course, if you're not in the industry... Sam Altman appeared on the fabulous BG2 podcast last Friday, and it got a little frisky when our fifth bestie here asked what I thought was a completely legitimate question. You know, mundane question.
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Chapter 3: Why did Jensen Huang claim China will win the AI race?
Hey, you're making 13 billion.
It's actually a softball question, to be honest.
It was an underhanded pitch.
The way that it was asked, I think you did a very reasonable job of asking a good question in a very fair way.
So let's just show this clip here. And then I want to go behind the pod with you, Brad.
So I think the single biggest question I've heard all week and hanging over the market is how can a company with $13 billion in revenues make $1.4 trillion of spend commitments? And you've heard the criticism, Sam.
First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. You're a huge fan.
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Chapter 4: What are OpenAI's strengths and weaknesses in the current market?
I just, enough. Like, you know, people are, I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I don't, I don't think you would. Including myself. Including myself. who talk with a lot of breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares.
So I think we could sell your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter or whatever about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow.
Chapter 5: What insights did the hosts share about consumer behavior in the market?
There are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous, open AI is about to go out of business and whatever. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock and I would love to see them get burned on that.
So, Brad, you asked, I think, like, you know, Chamath and I were just saying, a pretty mundane question. You said it very nicely. I guess we could give Sam a little bit of grace. I don't know if he was being a little cheeky or maybe he's tired of answering the question. But the internet took this and ran with it in a very viral way that he was angry and he was hostile. How did you take it? And...
That's the interesting thing, right? I mean, listen, we bust each other's chops all the time. We get feisty with one another. Sometimes it runs amok. Like we don't know if somebody's being serious or not serious. And, you know, Sam and I had a good laugh after, you know, I think Sam was, he was feisty, but I think he also intended it as a joke. He knows that I don't want to sell my shares.
He knows that I would like to buy more shares in the company, et cetera. But I think the reason that it went so viral is because it is a super important question. people are really nervous. They're wondering, are we walking in to an AI bubble?
Like how can these huge numbers, how can you be talking about 1.4 trillion in spending when you, you know, have kind of gap revenue that's been reported to 13 billion this year. So I was, I was a little disappointed and I tweeted about this afterwards that kind of the feistiness got in the way of the answer. But if you listen to his words during the rest of the segment,
He basically said, listen, we think we're going to have $100 billion in revenues over the course of the next couple of years. And, you know, Jay Calley sent the team a chart that basically just shows the information's forecast for what OpenAI and Anthropix revenues are going to be over the course of the next several years.
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Chapter 6: How did Zohran's victory reflect the rise of socialism in America?
And like the information is reporting that their internal numbers are both over $100 billion.
This is the information reporting on leaked internal numbers or the information is taking a guess?
No, I think this is on leaked internal numbers according to the information. And so, you know, I think Sam's in his head saying, I believe, and he says multiple times on the pod, we're gonna have revenues in excess of $100 billion. And the 1.4 trillion, it's super important to remember, this is over a period of five or six years.
I estimate about half of that spending is going to be borne by the partners. So now we're talking $700 billion in spending. Spread that over five or six years. In the out years, you're probably talking about $150 billion of CapEx to OpenAI.
Chapter 7: What implications does the filibuster have for current political dynamics?
So he's probably sitting there saying, and he said, we're going to have over $100 billion of revenue. So if we have $150 billion of revenue and $150 billion in CapEx, now it begins to pencil out a little bit more. But importantly, he said, And if we don't have those revenues, we've got to match our revenues to our expenses, right?
I think they will just extend, recut the deals in order to make those expenses doable for the company.
This is an important point because we don't know, we haven't seen these actual deals. And if they have conditions or outs, or if they can push it out or they can cancel it, maybe they have... And that will come out, I guess, in the public filings. But putting all that aside...
the market was not happy about this Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Broadcom, core weave, who all are the partners we're talking about, who are close to and when you see these charts of all the deals Sam has done, and Sam's a great dealmaker, obviously, they were all down six to 20%. So this has, in fact, been a significant correction in terms of the AI boom.
So before we get into their CFOs comments, Chamath, I'd love to hear your just general response.
I think it's fun to give these guys, but they're totally and completely uncorrelated. Okay. Every now and then you have a bad day.
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Chapter 8: How are economic policies affecting the middle class?
I've done thousands of hours on TV. I've had a couple of really bad days. You guys have been there.
yeah i suspect that if sam had to do it over he wouldn't have said what he said in the way he said it and even if he was joking he would have practiced it a little bit more and just landed it so what's actually going on i think right now we are in a period of getting a little risk off and rebalancing why there are two sets of things that are happening
The first set of things is the market is learning to digest all of the capex that has happened And they're all breathlessly trying to build models that try to predict what the ROI is of that spend. The second part of that is they're trying to figure out how this new spend will actually impact future earnings.
And this is less to do with OpenAI, but it has much more to do with the big stalwarts of the Mag7. Google's earnings were phenomenal. their AI numbers were blazing hot. Facebook's was terrible.
Apple is now in this really interesting place where it seems like they're gonna cede their AI business to Google and pay them billions of dollars a year like they get paid billions of dollars a year for search from them. I think that that's what's happening. The second part is as you go into year end, There's just a little bit of all in the market and people are like, let me just consolidate.
Let me book some wins. Let me get ready for the new year. Let me tax loss harvest. Let me do all the things that people used to wait until mid-December. And now they are smart enough to know that mid-December the price action is shit. And so now this price action starts in mid-November. So I wouldn't pin this on Brad and Sam. I just think this is natural market machinations.
But to be clear, we are very much getting into a phase of risk-off.
Yeah, and this got exacerbated, Sachs, because on Wednesday, OpenAI decided to be in the news again when their CFO, Sarah Fryer, told the Wall Street Journal she hopes the U.S. government, that's you, Sachs, will backstop the financing of its $1.4 trillion in data centers. Here's a direct quote, the backstop, the guarantee that allows the financing to happen.
And she said that the federal guarantees would, quote, really drop the cost of finance. Of course it would. And this would allow OpenAI to borrow more money at lower rates from a much larger pool of lenders. That went viral. And everybody said, oh, my God.
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