Brent Sadler

They were getting it even during the tail end – started at the tail end of Trump's first term.

It carried through in the Biden administration, to be very honest, but it didn't elevate.

But now with world events, the second term of President Trump's administration, I think the Chinese have a different risk calculation.

So you're seeing where in the past they would use –

repurposed fishing fleet vessels, the maritime militia, to do the lion's share of the dirty work at sea, backstop with their Chinese coast guard, you're starting to see increasingly them bringing in their naval vessels.

And this is escalatory, and it is a change of tactic.

But the biggest strategic change is really owed to the Philippine government because now they're videotaping, they're recording aggressively every interaction.

They are not just responding, but they're actively probing and going out to what are their features, their islands, their islets that they own to try to impose their sovereignty over their own land.

And so the Chinese are having to play defense for the first time

in this maritime contest that's been going on for 30 plus years, actually longer, but the last 30 years very intensely.

I'm not sure I could say it's going to come to a head, but we are about to enter into another period of time where the tensions are going to ratchet up.

In the summertime, the Chinese PLA, the Liberation Army, does massive exercises, joint fires with their air force, their rocket forces, their navy, out of the southern theater.

And this is based out in the South China Sea in Hainan Island, major naval bases and air bases.

As that mass naval activity picks up, you can expect that there's going to be a reaction or an intent by Beijing to try to push the boundaries.

This also would come on the tail end of a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping in May, if that stays.

Underlying whatever message they want to send in that summit, they would probably have a chance to do it with a lot of military force in the South China Sea.

Breaking point, no.

High tensions, big risk, yes.

Yeah, so a couple of things.

One, the next major war that's probably going to involve the United States directly is going to be a fight over the future of Taiwan.