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Chapter 1: What recent developments are occurring in the South China Sea?
Tension in the South China Sea has been overshadowed by what's going on in the Mideast, but there's been some major developments in recent weeks that could prove consequential for the region and the globe.
In this episode, we speak to a naval warfare expert about the latest strategic moves by China and other key players in the sea and how it could impact us here in the U.S. I'm Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley with Georgia Howe. This is a weekend edition of Morning Wire.
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Chapter 2: How is China exerting pressure on its neighbors in the region?
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Joining us now is Brent Sadler, a Senior Research Fellow for Naval Warfare and Advanced Technology at the Heritage Foundation. Brent, thank you so much for coming on.
Chapter 3: What was the international community's response to China's actions in 2013 and 2015?
Oh, thank you for having me on your show again.
So a lot of this has been going on under the radar as we sit at the top of the show. What is the situation now in the South China Sea?
Yes, I mean, despite all of the attention that sucks up all the attention in the Persian Gulf or even in the Caribbean against Venezuela and the drug narco cartels out there, there has been a steady and non-relenting pressure campaign by the Chinese Communist Party on its neighbors in the South China Sea. And again, a lot of people not surprised about Taiwan.
But the real action is what's happening around Scarborough Shoal, a Philippine feature. It's not really an island. It's about 130 miles away from Luzon, the main island in the north of the Philippines. And effectively, the Chinese have taken it over.
And they have been setting up to build a land reclamation and another man-made base like they did back with a lot of shock in 2013 through 15, a little further to the south. But Scarborough Shoal is where it's at right now.
Remind us, back in 2013 and 2015, what was the response from the international community to these actions from China?
limited and very modest to say the least. And that was very counterproductive because the Chinese started signaling in 2013 that they were going to do land reclamation, but no one in DC, most importantly, no one in DC took serious notice or to push back either diplomatically or even, you know, through the embassy. What,
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Chapter 4: Has the international response to China changed in recent years?
And our partners in the region trying to take our cue from us realized this was the era of a rebalance to the Asia Pacific back in 2012, the big defense strategic guidance that came out on that. Our partners in the region were still seeing China as a partner, not as a threat. And so it was a very muddled diplomatic messaging, and it was very weak response. So the Chinese accelerated.
They built up bases there.
Even though they promised in the Rose Garden between Xi Jinping and President Obama that he wasn't gonna do that, we know the Chinese reneged on that and they built very rapidly bases in places like Fiery Cross that is a massive airfield, missiles, radars, listening equipment, et cetera, to allow the Chinese to maintain a naval presence that bullies all their neighbors as they try to exercise what they think is their right to possess, not just simply access, but possess.
the seafloor resources, the fish, and the water itself in the South China Sea writ large.
All right, so here we are now over a decade later. Has the international community learned from what took place back in 2013 and 2015? Are the actions from the U.S. and its allies different in the region?
So the Chinese behavior has changed a little bit in the last year because they're getting much more forceful pushback They were getting it even during the tail end – started at the tail end of Trump's first term. It carried through in the Biden administration, to be very honest, but it didn't elevate.
But now with world events, the second term of President Trump's administration, I think the Chinese have a different risk calculation.
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Chapter 5: Why is the South China Sea considered a critical area for military conflict?
So you're seeing where in the past they would use – repurposed fishing fleet vessels, the maritime militia, to do the lion's share of the dirty work at sea, backstop with their Chinese coast guard, you're starting to see increasingly them bringing in their naval vessels. And this is escalatory, and it is a change of tactic.
But the biggest strategic change is really owed to the Philippine government because now they're videotaping, they're recording aggressively every interaction. They are not just responding, but they're actively probing and going out to what are their features, their islands, their islets that they own to try to impose their sovereignty over their own land.
And so the Chinese are having to play defense for the first time in this maritime contest that's been going on for 30 plus years, actually longer, but the last 30 years very intensely.
So is it fair to say the situation between the Philippines and China is reaching a breaking point in as soon as, say, the next few weeks or months? Or would you say not really?
I'm not sure I could say it's going to come to a head, but we are about to enter into another period of time where the tensions are going to ratchet up. In the summertime, the Chinese PLA, the Liberation Army, does massive exercises, joint fires with their air force, their rocket forces, their navy, out of the southern theater.
And this is based out in the South China Sea in Hainan Island, major naval bases and air bases. As that mass naval activity picks up, you can expect that there's going to be a reaction or an intent by Beijing to try to push the boundaries. This also would come on the tail end of a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping in May, if that stays.
Underlying whatever message they want to send in that summit, they would probably have a chance to do it with a lot of military force in the South China Sea.
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Chapter 6: What role does Taiwan play in China's strategic objectives?
Breaking point, no. High tensions, big risk, yes.
Now, just in general, for people who are not aware of the situation over there, why is this area so important? And also, why is it so volatile?
Yeah, so a couple of things. One, the next major war that's probably going to involve the United States directly is going to be a fight over the future of Taiwan. And there's a lot of reasons why that is inescapable if the Chinese decide to do it. Namely, there's 50,000 to 80,000 American citizens that will start to be killed the first day that the Chinese go
know start kinetic operations and bombing so it'll become politically unavoidable uh in order for that to happen successfully from the chinese military planning perspective it's not simply the control of the taiwan strait it's also control of the southern approaches through the south china sea in order to protect their vast southern coastline from american attack that could interdict and basically
overwhelm and destroy their invasion attempt from Taiwan. So the South China Sea is a realm for military conflict, but right now in this new kind of Cold War era that we're in, you've got a lot of fungibility. You've got allies, treaty ally, the Philippines, A mutual defense treaty that the United States has. So if the Chinese attack the Philippines, we're at war.
We don't have that with the others, but Vietnam is kind of an important player.
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Chapter 7: How could the situation between the Philippines and China escalate?
They've grown much closer to the United States as our interests pushing back on China and the South China Sea align. The same is true with Malaysia. that needs to go out further for economic reasons for oil exploration. Their federal budget is dependent on those revenue streams, but the Chinese are stymieing it.
So eventually the Malaysians know they've got to go into the so-called nine-dash line if they're going to stay economically viable. And so they also see that the opportunity is pushing them or their interest is pushing them for a more forceful stand against the Chinese. And Beijing's taken note. So the tensions are picking up.
I would say we're getting to not a breaking point, but we're going to have a question point, a deciding point here in the summer, I think.
And then as for Taiwan, again, remind our listeners why Taiwan is such a key target, an acquisition target for China.
Yeah, so for the Chinese Communist Party, it's about legitimacy to their people. Ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre in June of 1989, they've shifted their legitimacy to, we will provide you richer and better prosperity. Just cede to us all of your personal liberties and freedoms. And that bargain has been working until,
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Chapter 8: What are the potential implications of President Trump's approach to China?
fairly recently and xi jinping has been clamping down so that gives them the other argument of legitimacy we're the only ones that are going to be able to reunify china and end this foreign domination that those are their words not mine because there's a lot that historically is incorrect in their narrative but to them failing to unify or end the civil war with the kuomintang
and basically forcefully bring Taiwan back into the fold means the death of the Chinese Communist Party. It's arguable if that actually is what's going to happen, but that's their thinking. The other part of this is that with Taiwan as an exemplar of a Chinese democratic society that has a very vibrant, free, and open market, It's a huge market player with the United States and the globe.
It sends a signal that a communist China is not the only way forward for Chinese people. So it is in many ways what Berlin was to the Soviet Union. Taiwan is to Beijing today.
Then there's also the economic incentive of taking full control of Taiwan, correct?
So a couple of things. One is to be very careful about mirroring American values or what we would think. We're trying to figure out and anticipate the Chinese Communist Party's behavior. Prosperity for their people is not really the objective. It's party survival and party dominance. And so if their economy takes a hit, or their people's quality of life deteriorates.
As long as they can maintain party control, they don't care. It's a very cold, calculating communist system. And so we have to kind of judge and moderate our thinking on that. Economically, For Beijing, the military cost, the economic cost is worth taking it to settle this civil war that's been unsettled since 1949 in their mind. Militarily, here's where it's very dangerous for Western interests.
When the Chinese have Taiwan, mainland Chinese, if they were to do that, now they have unfettered access to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. They will then be encouraged because now they're defensive perimeter and they'll feel compelled to start to press further out more directly. They're military, they're economic, they're political, diplomatic. It's already happening.
If you look at the Solomon Islands with the secret security pact, a few years ago that was uncovered. That will then go into hyperdrive across the Pacific because the Chinese will view, okay, now we have to protect Taiwan. These Western powers are our enemies. Where next do we need to worry about? And they'll increase. It won't diminish. It will actually increase
the likelihood of confrontation, and the challenges to American and our Western-aligned thinking. So it's a much bigger problem when dealing with this very committed communist worldview.
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