Brian Klaas

But it taught me a lot about the way that we understand the world because what stuck with me and was always just sort of in the back of my mind when I was trying to practice social science as I do professionally is if they had just been a millisecond faster,

That they would have actually captured Zambia's government and that when I was taught all about models and data and trend lines and so on, the details, what people would call the noise, is what I thought was really, really important in that coup plot. And it was all reduced to one number, which was zero, a failed coup plot.

That they would have actually captured Zambia's government and that when I was taught all about models and data and trend lines and so on, the details, what people would call the noise, is what I thought was really, really important in that coup plot. And it was all reduced to one number, which was zero, a failed coup plot.

That they would have actually captured Zambia's government and that when I was taught all about models and data and trend lines and so on, the details, what people would call the noise, is what I thought was really, really important in that coup plot. And it was all reduced to one number, which was zero, a failed coup plot.

This is the big problem of social research and why it's so unbelievably difficult to do effectively. Because if you were trying to model where the atomic bomb is going to be dropped, you wouldn't include the vacation histories of U.S. government officials. But all of these things matter.

This is the big problem of social research and why it's so unbelievably difficult to do effectively. Because if you were trying to model where the atomic bomb is going to be dropped, you wouldn't include the vacation histories of U.S. government officials. But all of these things matter.

This is the big problem of social research and why it's so unbelievably difficult to do effectively. Because if you were trying to model where the atomic bomb is going to be dropped, you wouldn't include the vacation histories of U.S. government officials. But all of these things matter.

And what I've realized is that intuitively, when we think about the trajectories of our own lives, we take this stuff seriously. When we think about how we met a partner, why we ended up going to this school rather than that school, the little bits of noise always matter in our life histories.

And what I've realized is that intuitively, when we think about the trajectories of our own lives, we take this stuff seriously. When we think about how we met a partner, why we ended up going to this school rather than that school, the little bits of noise always matter in our life histories.

And what I've realized is that intuitively, when we think about the trajectories of our own lives, we take this stuff seriously. When we think about how we met a partner, why we ended up going to this school rather than that school, the little bits of noise always matter in our life histories.

When we aggregate it out to the social level and we try to make predictions and talk about trends and so on, all that detail gets treated as though it's meaningless. And my argument in a nutshell is that that is a mistake, that the noise is really important because the small changes can create massive social differences over time.

When we aggregate it out to the social level and we try to make predictions and talk about trends and so on, all that detail gets treated as though it's meaningless. And my argument in a nutshell is that that is a mistake, that the noise is really important because the small changes can create massive social differences over time.

When we aggregate it out to the social level and we try to make predictions and talk about trends and so on, all that detail gets treated as though it's meaningless. And my argument in a nutshell is that that is a mistake, that the noise is really important because the small changes can create massive social differences over time.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

A lot of people in Britain looked at what they saw as an extremely momentous world event of Princess Diana dying. And the idea that a car accident, something so banal and so arbitrary as a car accident could be behind this was so unsatisfying that a lot of people, when they were being studied for their beliefs on what had actually happened,