Brian Klaas

Now, if you happen to make a mistake and you think it is a saber tooth tiger when it's not, you will survive and maybe waste a little bit of energy by running away. But if you make the other kind of mistake, if you think it's nothing and it turns out to be a saber tooth tiger, you will die. So our brains have evolved to overemphasize patterns.

Now, if you happen to make a mistake and you think it is a saber tooth tiger when it's not, you will survive and maybe waste a little bit of energy by running away. But if you make the other kind of mistake, if you think it's nothing and it turns out to be a saber tooth tiger, you will die. So our brains have evolved to overemphasize patterns.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

And this helps us survive because you're more attuned to what might be a threat. But it also means that we see patterns where they don't necessarily exist. And this creates a mismatch with modern life where we make mistakes because we believe things to be true that simply are uncorrelated clusters of data that we sort of connect the dots between.

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Yeah, so I find this both from sort of an observational point of view and also from participating in this world of forecasting and punditry. On the observational side, I think when you look at something like the stock market, 8 billion interacting humans producing a global economy, and then some analysts will say, well, stocks are reacting today to this one piece of news. And you're like, really?

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.

Out of 8 billion people? This one thing is what's causing the market to move in this exact way. And of course, if it had moved the other way, you would have just come up with an explanation that also fits that.

But when I end up going on television to talk about politics or social change, I've been really aware that one thing I can't really say, and I'm never told this, but it's sort of the implicit norm of this world, is you can't say, I don't know. And I don't know a lot of the time. Because The world is really complicated. It's really complex.

But when I end up going on television to talk about politics or social change, I've been really aware that one thing I can't really say, and I'm never told this, but it's sort of the implicit norm of this world, is you can't say, I don't know. And I don't know a lot of the time. Because The world is really complicated. It's really complex.

But when I end up going on television to talk about politics or social change, I've been really aware that one thing I can't really say, and I'm never told this, but it's sort of the implicit norm of this world, is you can't say, I don't know. And I don't know a lot of the time. Because The world is really complicated. It's really complex.

So it reinforces the bias because it's what we crave the most from the people who seemingly are the smartest among us, when in actual fact, the smartest people are the ones who are most prone to saying, I don't know.

So it reinforces the bias because it's what we crave the most from the people who seemingly are the smartest among us, when in actual fact, the smartest people are the ones who are most prone to saying, I don't know.

So it reinforces the bias because it's what we crave the most from the people who seemingly are the smartest among us, when in actual fact, the smartest people are the ones who are most prone to saying, I don't know.

So sliding doors tells us something really important, which is that the moments that we believe to be consequential, those sort of what if moments, those are the tip of the iceberg, right? They're the ones where we're aware that our lives have diverted. And the point that I'm making is that that is happening literally 100% of the time.

So sliding doors tells us something really important, which is that the moments that we believe to be consequential, those sort of what if moments, those are the tip of the iceberg, right? They're the ones where we're aware that our lives have diverted. And the point that I'm making is that that is happening literally 100% of the time.

So sliding doors tells us something really important, which is that the moments that we believe to be consequential, those sort of what if moments, those are the tip of the iceberg, right? They're the ones where we're aware that our lives have diverted. And the point that I'm making is that that is happening literally 100% of the time.