Brian Klaas

The way the war ends affects the way the next war begins or it affects the way the economy recovers, right? If Kyoto is not part of Japan's economy, Japan in the 20th century maybe has a different history. Right. And so the argument that I'm making is that the wars are the most obvious, but everything matters. Right. That these little details are always reshaping history.

The way the war ends affects the way the next war begins or it affects the way the economy recovers, right? If Kyoto is not part of Japan's economy, Japan in the 20th century maybe has a different history. Right. And so the argument that I'm making is that the wars are the most obvious, but everything matters. Right. That these little details are always reshaping history.

And it's just these little glimpses we get when we can actually make the counterfactual make sense. That is why I use warfare very often in illustrating the points. Right.

And it's just these little glimpses we get when we can actually make the counterfactual make sense. That is why I use warfare very often in illustrating the points. Right.

And it's just these little glimpses we get when we can actually make the counterfactual make sense. That is why I use warfare very often in illustrating the points. Right.

I think it's the opposite, unfortunately. And I think it's the opposite for two reasons. I really worry about this. This is where I go into the social science hat a little bit. But the two reasons I think this has gone the wrong way. First is because we have so many data tools at our disposal. that an AI is going to amplify this, that people begin to believe the data can predict the future.

I think it's the opposite, unfortunately. And I think it's the opposite for two reasons. I really worry about this. This is where I go into the social science hat a little bit. But the two reasons I think this has gone the wrong way. First is because we have so many data tools at our disposal. that an AI is going to amplify this, that people begin to believe the data can predict the future.

I think it's the opposite, unfortunately. And I think it's the opposite for two reasons. I really worry about this. This is where I go into the social science hat a little bit. But the two reasons I think this has gone the wrong way. First is because we have so many data tools at our disposal. that an AI is going to amplify this, that people begin to believe the data can predict the future.

And we can't. We just simply can't because you can't model every possible contingency of history. I mean, you would never put in your model the vacation histories of US government officials or the cigar locations of various armies and so on. So as a result of that, I think there's a false hubris that we have when we look at the world.

And we can't. We just simply can't because you can't model every possible contingency of history. I mean, you would never put in your model the vacation histories of US government officials or the cigar locations of various armies and so on. So as a result of that, I think there's a false hubris that we have when we look at the world.

And we can't. We just simply can't because you can't model every possible contingency of history. I mean, you would never put in your model the vacation histories of US government officials or the cigar locations of various armies and so on. So as a result of that, I think there's a false hubris that we have when we look at the world.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.