Brian Klaas

And we can't. We just simply can't because you can't model every possible contingency of history. I mean, you would never put in your model the vacation histories of US government officials or the cigar locations of various armies and so on. So as a result of that, I think there's a false hubris that we have when we look at the world.

And we can't. We just simply can't because you can't model every possible contingency of history. I mean, you would never put in your model the vacation histories of US government officials or the cigar locations of various armies and so on. So as a result of that, I think there's a false hubris that we have when we look at the world.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

And, you know, I'm part of this as a social scientist where you sort of have these models and you say, this is what's going to happen. Here's the trends, the economists forecast, all these things. And we're very often wrong. So I think that aspect is problematic. And the second aspect of this is that I think the world has become less stable because it's more interconnected.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

So in other words, the cigar story quite obviously changed American history. And over time, that would have ripple effects for the rest of the world. The problem is a pivotal moment in China now affects Americans. And a pivotal moment in America now affects people in Zimbabwe. So because of the interconnectivity, I think we have more risk. that is harder to navigate.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.

And so I wish we had decision makers that were constantly thinking about sort of resilience and contingencies. I really worry that our sort of overconfidence is one where we haven't actually learned the lessons of history.

Yeah, so I'll talk about 9-11 briefly and then the Bin Laden raid. I mean, I think one of the stories I have in Fluke is a really moving personal story of a man who went to a conference that was supposed to be held in the World Trade Center on 9-11. And his colleague gave him the gift of a new tie on the morning of the conference as a sort of token of appreciation or whatever.

Yeah, so I'll talk about 9-11 briefly and then the Bin Laden raid. I mean, I think one of the stories I have in Fluke is a really moving personal story of a man who went to a conference that was supposed to be held in the World Trade Center on 9-11. And his colleague gave him the gift of a new tie on the morning of the conference as a sort of token of appreciation or whatever.

Yeah, so I'll talk about 9-11 briefly and then the Bin Laden raid. I mean, I think one of the stories I have in Fluke is a really moving personal story of a man who went to a conference that was supposed to be held in the World Trade Center on 9-11. And his colleague gave him the gift of a new tie on the morning of the conference as a sort of token of appreciation or whatever.

And the tie didn't match his shirt that he was wearing. So he went back to iron the shirt. And when he went back to iron the shirt, she went up to the conference and was killed when the first plane hit the World Trade Center. And he survived and she didn't. So her act of kindness is what caused her to die, unfortunately, is very, very sad.

And the tie didn't match his shirt that he was wearing. So he went back to iron the shirt. And when he went back to iron the shirt, she went up to the conference and was killed when the first plane hit the World Trade Center. And he survived and she didn't. So her act of kindness is what caused her to die, unfortunately, is very, very sad.

And the tie didn't match his shirt that he was wearing. So he went back to iron the shirt. And when he went back to iron the shirt, she went up to the conference and was killed when the first plane hit the World Trade Center. And he survived and she didn't. So her act of kindness is what caused her to die, unfortunately, is very, very sad.

And one of the things I just wanted to talk briefly about the philosophy of the history that you get from a story like that.

And one of the things I just wanted to talk briefly about the philosophy of the history that you get from a story like that.

And one of the things I just wanted to talk briefly about the philosophy of the history that you get from a story like that.