Brian Klaas

When we aggregate it out to the social level and we try to make predictions and talk about trends and so on, all that detail gets treated as though it's meaningless. And my argument in a nutshell is that that is a mistake, that the noise is really important because the small changes can create massive social differences over time.

When we aggregate it out to the social level and we try to make predictions and talk about trends and so on, all that detail gets treated as though it's meaningless. And my argument in a nutshell is that that is a mistake, that the noise is really important because the small changes can create massive social differences over time.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

The magnitude bias is the belief, often the false belief, that any big event must have a big cause that triggers it. So if there's a war, if there's an assassination, if there is a major shift in society of any sort, or indeed if our lives are upended, that there must be some big explanation.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

And so we've basically got brains that are evolved to gravitate towards large explanations for large events. And it's really unsatisfying to think the opposite, right? So one of the ways that this manifests is in conspiracy thinking. And if you think about Princess Diana's death, this is one of my favorite studies that goes to the cognitive psychology of this.

A lot of people in Britain looked at what they saw as an extremely momentous world event of Princess Diana dying. And the idea that a car accident, something so banal and so arbitrary as a car accident could be behind this was so unsatisfying that a lot of people, when they were being studied for their beliefs on what had actually happened,

A lot of people in Britain looked at what they saw as an extremely momentous world event of Princess Diana dying. And the idea that a car accident, something so banal and so arbitrary as a car accident could be behind this was so unsatisfying that a lot of people, when they were being studied for their beliefs on what had actually happened,

A lot of people in Britain looked at what they saw as an extremely momentous world event of Princess Diana dying. And the idea that a car accident, something so banal and so arbitrary as a car accident could be behind this was so unsatisfying that a lot of people, when they were being studied for their beliefs on what had actually happened,

will happily take large explanations, even if they're mutually contradictory. So people who are conspiratorial thinkers will sometimes say that, yes, we think that she's still alive, and also we think that she was killed by the government. And both of those can't be true, but they're totally unsatisfied with the notion of an arbitrary or an accidental explanation.

will happily take large explanations, even if they're mutually contradictory. So people who are conspiratorial thinkers will sometimes say that, yes, we think that she's still alive, and also we think that she was killed by the government. And both of those can't be true, but they're totally unsatisfied with the notion of an arbitrary or an accidental explanation.

will happily take large explanations, even if they're mutually contradictory. So people who are conspiratorial thinkers will sometimes say that, yes, we think that she's still alive, and also we think that she was killed by the government. And both of those can't be true, but they're totally unsatisfied with the notion of an arbitrary or an accidental explanation.

Yeah, but if you go back further, all of this is this intersection of tiny events. I mean, sometimes I'll say things like, have you ever heard of Albert Einstein's grandmother? It's like, no. Well, she was really important because if she didn't exist, Albert Einstein doesn't exist.

Yeah, but if you go back further, all of this is this intersection of tiny events. I mean, sometimes I'll say things like, have you ever heard of Albert Einstein's grandmother? It's like, no. Well, she was really important because if she didn't exist, Albert Einstein doesn't exist.

Yeah, but if you go back further, all of this is this intersection of tiny events. I mean, sometimes I'll say things like, have you ever heard of Albert Einstein's grandmother? It's like, no. Well, she was really important because if she didn't exist, Albert Einstein doesn't exist.

So you sort of, the more that you end up looking for explanations, you end up in what's called an infinite regress, which is where there's another explanation. And then that has another explanation behind it. And that has another explanation behind it.

So you sort of, the more that you end up looking for explanations, you end up in what's called an infinite regress, which is where there's another explanation. And then that has another explanation behind it. And that has another explanation behind it.

So you sort of, the more that you end up looking for explanations, you end up in what's called an infinite regress, which is where there's another explanation. And then that has another explanation behind it. And that has another explanation behind it.