Brian Stewart

speaker

910 appearances 18 recordings 2 series first heard Feb 2025 last heard 10 Apr

Brian Stewart’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 8 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 4.

Appearances

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Wall Street Breakfast · Trump playing chicken with the world? · 4 Apr 2025 podcast

There was already a general moving away from tech into more defensive. People were hedging their bets a little bit on tech. And so I think this has only exacerbated this. As we discussed during the sell-off that happened earlier this year, if you're bullish long-term, bullish generally, the best case scenario is that it falls quickly and finds a bottom quickly and then starts to recover.

So in a certain sense, if you want to take sort of a reversely positive look at a day when The NASDAQ at its lowest point was down more than 5%. You can say we washed out all the concerns and now we can have a better base to build on. So if you're a tech bull, this is a great chance to get tech companies at a reduced price.

If you're convinced that we're headed straight into an economic brick wall, then this is just the beginning.

So next week, we start to get the earnings season started.

churning next week is financial focus there's not a lot of tech companies on the docket but in the weeks following so as we get into the tail end of april we should start to get more tech companies reporting commentary from those tech companies is probably going to be pretty cloudy i think a lot of them are going to have to suspend guidance or sort of generalize their guidance in a way that that makes it difficult to get visibility just because they're all gonna be scrambling

to figure out the tariff situation. But within those earnings reports and the commentary that the management is going to provide, there should be kind of line items about underlying AI demand.

And so I think investors should look at that for longer term investment planning, looking for those nuggets of information that are going to come out of these earnings reports about the underlying demand for infrastructure build-out.

I feel that the market's going to be very macro focused for a while. So I think individual companies, there might be large positive surprises or large negative surprises. However, in general, I don't know if that's going to provide a catalyst to move the overall market because I think we'll be so obsessed. with political machinations that are going to surround the tariff announcements.

But I do see it as a signpost as we're going to start getting more earnings related data, financial related data in general. So I think the market's going to, over the next few weeks, start the process of kind of turning inward a little bit and taking its eyes off of Washington and more on Wall Street in general.

Yeah.

So next week, we got the FOMC minutes, which are going to let us know what the Fed was talking about and thinking about when it made its last rate announcements. We're also going to get the CPI and PPIs. We're going to get the latest inflation data.

I think the inflation data, even more than the jobs report or the manufacturing report, I feel that given the situation with tariffs and the possible economic implications of those, that that data is going to be seen as backward looking. It just does not describe the reality that we're living in sort of post tariffs.

So I don't know that that's going to have a huge impact on the thought process, but the CPI report might because it will kind of define the baseline as we look to whether or not tariffs are going to cause higher prices. I mean, the worst case scenario still remains that we end up in some sort of stagflationary situation. environment demand craters because everything gets too expensive.

And so we have a recession, but prices remain sticky because tariffs are adding to already existing inflationary pressures. And so prices remain high and jobs start to bottom out. So we could see a worst case scenario brewing. So I think that the inflation report that comes out next week will be very important into sort of setting those expectations.

Yeah, I just don't think that this month's data means much because so much has happened on a macro level.

There's been such a seismic shift in the possibilities, but I think if we look ahead, if we go to sort of beginning of May, when we're going to get the April report, businesses are going to be responding in the next few weeks to the realities of what their supply chain is going to look like, what their cost basis is going to be, and sort of setting their employment levels there.

So that would be the first data point that would involve sort of companies responding to the new reality.

Another one next week is Delta Airlines, the first airline one. I think it'll be interesting just for the airlines. It's the first marker of demand for travel. Also, CarMax is an interesting one just because we are... getting a 25% tariff on foreign-made auto and auto parts.

And so CarMax, which is a car dealer, it'd be interesting to see if there's kind of a run on the bank for cars made before the tariffs put into place. So just in terms of a macro data point, it might be interesting to check out that.

Wall Street Breakfast · Tariffs, tech sluggishness, gold, bitcoin, and inflation · 28 Mar 2025 podcast

Brian Stewart, our director of news here at Seeking Alpha. Welcome back to the show as we close out almost another month and head into April.

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