Brian Stewart
speaker
910 appearances
18 recordings
2 series
first heard Feb 2025
last heard 10 Apr
Brian Stewart’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 8 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 4.
Appearances
september levels one i guess you'd call it a standout in terms of how well it's holding up today is microsoft it's only down one percent today but it's just off a 52-week low down 10 so far this year so it's already kind of priced in some of this action so we're seeing kind of a broad-based focused on consumer and technology stocks as like i said we're just adjusting to the reality and kind of trying to figure out what the reality is going to be going forward
I mean, not economically. I think if you want to take that as a signal as to the process by which these tariffs were arrived at. It seems to be there was a spreadsheet somewhere and there was equations used and sort of spit out. And there wasn't sort of a review process to see sort of the reality of the situation on the ground and what this would mean and what this... meant.
And so if you want to look at it as a glimpse as to the Trump administration's process to putting these in place, and if you're an optimist, maybe that points to the idea that this is just an opening gambit, that we were setting a number. We need that number to be justified in some sort of way. So here it is. And then now we're going to talk to the individual countries.
Obviously, you can't talk to an uninhabited island, but those tariffs aren't going to affect consumers anyway. So we'll kind of see how things shake out. Generally speaking, looking back at past administrations, they've been very responsive to the stock market. That's one of the kind of main signals that...
presidential administrations have used to determine popularity in the absence of, you know, when elections are far away, if you want to sort of judge popular opinion, stock market is one of the indexes that they use. So traditionally, historically, a move like today would have the White House discussing internally next moves. I'm not sure how responsive the Trump administration is.
We just don't know. The administration's new. It hasn't changed policy much in response to previous stock market dips so far this year. So it remains to be seen exactly what the next steps are.
So just to review the action yesterday. So Tesla was down early in the day based on the delivery numbers. As you pointed out, there was a bounce back later and the stock was higher, ended higher before being down today, kind of after the tariff announcement. I think part of that was there was already an expectation in the market that the Q1 deliveries were going to be bad.
They were worse than expected. And so you saw a dip, but a lot of that had already been priced into the stock. And so I don't know that deliveries were ever going to have a lingering impact on the stock price. I think that was always going to be sort of the jumping off point for whatever was coming next. I do think that Politico story did provide a catalyst on the upside.
I'm using Dan Ives now as sort of a bull sentiments index. He's been pounding the table that... Musk's activity in Doge have been very problematic for Tesla's brands and that he needs to step away from Doge and come back to the company and take the steps necessary. He calls it a moment of truth for Musk. So if you kind of take that as sort of the bull's view of the stock, that's a necessary step.
You can see why the stock would rally on the idea that he was stepping back from Doge and moving back to sort of full-time Doge. management of Tesla. Later, after that report came out, both the White House and Musk denied that it was true. It's not clear how much of that is saving face, how much of that is truly Musk's intent.
The bottom line is it's not clear right now what Musk's plans are going forward, how much time he plans to spend at Doge, how much time he plans at Tesla. That uncertainty itself is a problem for Tesla. So a lot of the future of Tesla depends. And I'm talking about the near-term future.
If you're a long-term bull, you're betting on autonomous driving, you're betting on robots, you're betting on the building out of the green infrastructure, solar and charging stations and all the parts of Tesla that point to a bright future. But in the near term and the medium term, Musk is so tied to the company that it is dependent.
The movement of the stock in the near term is going to be very dependent on how he kind of handles the public outcry.
So you point out some bright spots today in the retail sector. So I guess TJX would be the ticker, but that grouping of companies, which TJ, TJ Maxx, Marshalls, that company, it's up 1.6% today. It was up 6% going into today in the previous week. So the stock was already seeing a boost. One of the basically buys inventory from other retailers.
So when companies have too much inventory, it'll take it off its hand and sell it at discounted prices. That's its business plan. So because it has this flexible supply chain, it's not as plugged in to... it can move around in response to these tariffs. It's also benefiting from the general move to lower price options.
So it's been one of the standout winners in the retail space today and in the near term. You also see companies like Costco and Walmart. Costco's up slightly today and Walmart's down slightly, but down much less than the market in general. Also Walmart's up about 5%. over the previous five days anyway.
Walmart took a dip back in February after it issued soft guidance, but in recent days it's reportedly been pushing its Chinese suppliers to lower costs. So I think there's a bet that companies like Costco and Walmart in a situation where all retailers are gonna be hurt by these tariffs because their supply chains are going to be affected by much more expensive
that companies like Costco and Walmart are large enough that they can negotiate better prices. So even though the entire industry is going to be a general loser relative to their competitors, Walmart and Costco can get better deals and so therefore can still offer lower prices.
So RH, Restoration Hardware, is down about 39% today. I mean, that's partially tariff-related, but it had negative earnings as well. It missed expectations and gave soft guidance. It's described the current housing market as the worst housing market in almost 50 years. It's a luxury furniture maker, retailer, luxury furniture retailer. And it's just in the perfect storm.
Everything's going wrong for macro speaking for RH. And so you can see it losing a large chunk of its value today. In terms of the other tech companies, there's Besides the supply chain issues that are being affected by the tariff, there's also the fear that the AI build-out is not going to be as aggressive as originally hoped. I think there's just a general moving away.
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