Brian Stewart
speaker
910 appearances
18 recordings
2 series
first heard Feb 2025
last heard 10 Apr
Brian Stewart’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 8 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 4.
Appearances
Wall Street Breakfast · Wall Street Roundup: Is everything priced in but normalcy? · 9 Jan 2026
podcast
And then I guess just because we're the first episode of the new year, anything to say about the market in general this coming year?
Anything that you're particularly focused on or thinking about or anything to give to investors for this coming year?
Yes, yes, yes.
To the point about valuation and how it's a difficult thing to ascertain these days, I just had a fantastic conversation for those interested with Julian Lin on our Investing Experts podcast.
He's a valuation guy and he gets into how he figures out valuation when it's a bit confusing and sus.
So I would recommend people listen to that.
It's a deep dive on IIPR, the cannabis REIT, but he gets into some good stuff about valuation for those interested.
Brian, we are off next week.
I'm on vacation, but we will talk to everybody and each other in a couple of weeks.
Talk to you then.
Appreciate this very thoughtful conversation.
Indeed, yeah. Busy times.
Yeah, obviously. So we're recording this on Thursday as the markets fall following the tariff announcement last night. The tariffs were much more draconian than people had predicted. So the market is adjusting accordingly. If you're taking the optimistic view of the process that we're now involved in, Trump is in the process of doing a negotiation tactic.
He's playing chicken with the rest of the world. These are sort of opening gambit to negotiations. And so over the next few weeks, we're going to see these mitigated or exceptions made to the point where they won't be as aggressive as they are now.
The pessimistic view is that Trump isn't interested in coming to any sort of reasonable terms with countries, that there's a more kind of political component to the tariffs more than economic, and that they could conceivably spark a worldwide recession in the near future.
Yeah, I think that the news flow over the next foreseeable future is going to be kind of how sticky are these tariffs? Is this the end state that we're just going to put these tariffs in place? Just to give some perspective to listeners who haven't sort of dug into the details yet, it's 10%, kind of a minimum. Every country gets at least 10% tariff. And then through a...
a equation related to the trade deficit that we have with various countries, a tariff rate sets. And so the highest rates on countries like Cambodia is 49%. And so I believe doing this off top my head, but I think China was 34% on top of the 20% that we'd already put in place. So extremely high in sort of normal sort of economic structures, the
the tariffs are just going to be passed on to consumers. So you can expect items that are coming in from those countries to just become 49% more expensive or 34% more expensive, depending on where they come from. So as we kind of look at the fallout today, unsurprisingly, you see a lot of declines in the retail sector, especially in the smaller cap and mid cap retail space.
So just to give some examples, like Five Below, a low price retailer that gets a lot of items from overseas retailers, China, Taiwan, Vietnam, those kinds of places. So it's down 26% as we're speaking. Gap is down 18%. Kohl's is down 24%. Victoria's Secret's down 20%. So companies that have a supply chain that's very, very reliant on those countries are going to see a hard hit.
We're also seeing a lot of tech stocks get hit. One of the standouts is Apple, which is down about 8%, getting back to levels last seen last summer. Also just kind of doing a quick check of the Magnificent Seven. We have Amazon down 7%, Nvidia down six, Meta down six. They're all kind of reaching
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