Bryan Cantrill

Near miss or whatever, but it sounds like... That one is holding on. That one is not wrong, I would say. And you had made a six-year prediction in that same year that you'd be able to spin up AWS instances, RISC-V AWS instances in six. So that's got three to run. Feels like that's got some plausibility to it. Plausibility.

Near miss or whatever, but it sounds like... That one is holding on. That one is not wrong, I would say. And you had made a six-year prediction in that same year that you'd be able to spin up AWS instances, RISC-V AWS instances in six. So that's got three to run. Feels like that's got some plausibility to it. Plausibility.

Um, I had, I accurately predicted the demise of web three, like everybody else that year. And then my other predictions were absolutely terrible and embarrassing. Um, the, uh, open EDA, we are no closer to open EDA.

Um, I had, I accurately predicted the demise of web three, like everybody else that year. And then my other predictions were absolutely terrible and embarrassing. Um, the, uh, open EDA, we are no closer to open EDA.

I can't, you know, and this has happened to me a couple of times over the years where I get like something like, I just, I get some bits set and I believe that better things are possible. And I just, you know, it clouds my, I blame Web3, Web3 cloud for my judgment.

I can't, you know, and this has happened to me a couple of times over the years where I get like something like, I just, I get some bits set and I believe that better things are possible. And I just, you know, it clouds my, I blame Web3, Web3 cloud for my judgment.

Yeah, exactly. I was actually trying to make sure that I was not included in the CEO search by making clear what I intended to do as CEO. So mission accomplished on that one. Okay, then the other one, Adam, that at least I want to talk about, because I had a prediction a year ago that AI doomerism has dropped out of the lexicon, a la your Web3 prediction. We don't talk about PDoom and XRisk.

Yeah, exactly. I was actually trying to make sure that I was not included in the CEO search by making clear what I intended to do as CEO. So mission accomplished on that one. Okay, then the other one, Adam, that at least I want to talk about, because I had a prediction a year ago that AI doomerism has dropped out of the lexicon, a la your Web3 prediction. We don't talk about PDoom and XRisk.

And Adam, I'm giving myself full marks on this one.

And Adam, I'm giving myself full marks on this one.

Yeah, that is still present. And my prediction, just to be clear, was purely around AI-based humorism. And I did want to make sure that my prediction was wrong by turning it into a parlay that the humorists would claim credit for the fact that humorism is no longer in the zeitgeist. And I think that that is, I have not seen that as much.

Yeah, that is still present. And my prediction, just to be clear, was purely around AI-based humorism. And I did want to make sure that my prediction was wrong by turning it into a parlay that the humorists would claim credit for the fact that humorism is no longer in the zeitgeist. And I think that that is, I have not seen that as much.

I've not seen Leon Shapira claiming that it was his humorism that has allowed AI to be safer. So I don't think that part has come true. but I would like to grant myself full marks on AI doomerism dropping out of the lexicon. I feel that that is. And Simon, when we had you on almost exactly a year ago... Yeah, it was the episode after this one a year ago.

I've not seen Leon Shapira claiming that it was his humorism that has allowed AI to be safer. So I don't think that part has come true. but I would like to grant myself full marks on AI doomerism dropping out of the lexicon. I feel that that is. And Simon, when we had you on almost exactly a year ago... Yeah, it was the episode after this one a year ago.

A year ago, and we had this scary IEEE Spectrum article about the boogeyman of open-source AI, which we would now call open-weight AI, I think. And that already feels like that has not aged well, that piece. I mean, we were... As you said, your eyebrows were flying off your head when you read it.

A year ago, and we had this scary IEEE Spectrum article about the boogeyman of open-source AI, which we would now call open-weight AI, I think. And that already feels like that has not aged well, that piece. I mean, we were... As you said, your eyebrows were flying off your head when you read it.

And I don't think that one looks back on that piece and thinks like, well, boy, maybe that actually did raise some good points. It's like, no.

And I don't think that one looks back on that piece and thinks like, well, boy, maybe that actually did raise some good points. It's like, no.

It was actually a good foreshadowing because I think that is actually one of the biggest stories of last year. It was what only happened, you know, whatever it was, two weeks ago, less than two weeks ago, because you're right, Simon, that was amazing what DeepSake has done. So out of many of the past predictions that we need to revisit before we get going on looking forward, are you...

It was actually a good foreshadowing because I think that is actually one of the biggest stories of last year. It was what only happened, you know, whatever it was, two weeks ago, less than two weeks ago, because you're right, Simon, that was amazing what DeepSake has done. So out of many of the past predictions that we need to revisit before we get going on looking forward, are you...