Cal Newport

The software service apocalypse.

So, you know, companies that do like legal advice, companies that do graphic design, like Figma and Adobe, because a lot of, you know, we have generative image generation is making, building images from scratch is less useful.

Customer service, so companies that do a lot of customer service type software,

We saw the stock was sliding on these very specific software industries because like, look, I think LLMs are going to be able to do this.

It was triggered by Anthropic releasing some plugins that made it easier to integrate LLMs into your services without having to hire these other companies.

But you would think that would be good news for the big tech companies building the AI that's going to replace all this.

Their stock was sliding as well.

So the big tech companies had this big slide that at the end of the week we're recording this, there was a rebound at the end, but it was like a trillion dollars in market cap disappeared from the big tech companies at the same time.

So what does that mean the market was betting on?

What are investors betting on at that point?

What was going to happen?

And they were betting that in the near future, the next year or two, what we're going to see is selective impacts in specific fields.

from generative AI, but also that too much money is being invested in these AI companies as it already, which means they're betting that they're not about to automate most of the economy.

They're not about to, you know, just one more iteration away from a huge economic disruption.

They're not, they're not at this peak of like complete transformation because if they were, you would be trying to increase your holdings in these companies.

Like I don't care how much money they're investing.

These companies are going to be worth an astronomical amount of money, but the market is betting that

I think the impact is going to be more limited in the one to two year window than a lot of the commentary was seen.

So I think that's important because talk is cheap, but tech stocks aren't.

And so people, the way they spend their money actually often has more of, I think there's a lot of information in that versus just, I've been reading these articles online and my God, the vibe really seems to be saying this is a big deal.