Carissa Véliz

Similarly, social predictions are veiled commands.

They implicitly tell us how to act.

For example, when a tech executive says that in the future we will use AI for everything and everywhere, he's trying to get you to act in a way that will fulfill his vision of the future.

You know, the one that happens to line his pockets.

And when you believe that prediction as if it were telling you something about the future, when you give in to the fear of missing out and you go and you buy the AI and you contribute to the self-fulfilling prophecy, what you are actually doing is obeying.

Have you noticed how often people who make predictions about technology say that the future they are describing is inevitable?

That's a red flag.

Those predictions are designed to act as conversation stoppers.

They're telling you, don't question me, just accept what I'm saying as a fact.

I'd like for this talk to be a conversation starter.

I hope it will persuade you to ask more questions.

Predictions invite manipulation.

Their power to shape the future creates the temptation to tamper with it and benefit from it.

Take prediction markets.

The argument for having them is that they can be a source of knowledge.

In theory, markets don't lie.

If people make bets and they stand to lose if they get it wrong, they'll try to get it right.

And by having many people place bets, we can harness the wisdom of the crowds.

But that assumes a very naive view of prediction as a quest for knowledge.

If you consider prediction as a quest for power, a very different picture emerges.