Beware the power of prediction | Carissa Véliz
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hugh. What do the story of Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common? More than you'd think. They're both driven by self-fulfilling prophecies.
Even though we tend to associate prediction with knowledge, I'd like to invite you to consider the possibility that most of the predictions that you encounter in an everyday setting are closer to the realm of power than that of knowledge. Predictions are often power plays in disguise. They justify value-laden decisions under the pretense of facts.
That's philosopher, AI ethicist, and TED fellow Carissa Veliz. In her talk, she traces the hidden power of prediction from kings who banned or even killed prophets to AI algorithms quietly making decisions about your life right now.
What do Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common?
Better understanding prediction matters more than ever, because we're relying on forecasting more than ever with AI. And based on how we talk about prediction, we're being much too naive about it. But AI is science, you might think. It's cutting-edge technology. Well?
Depends on the kind of AI and how we use it. Her message? The next time someone tells you a specific outcome is inevitable. Remember, they aren't necessarily describing the future. They might be selling it instead. That's coming up right after a short break.
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And now, our TED Talk of the day.
Let me tell you about the future. Predictions are the boxing ring where fights over the future take place. As the story goes, King Louis XI kept an astrologer in court. One day, the astrologer predicted that a lady of the court would die within a week. When she did, Louis was shaken.
How are predictions often power plays in disguise?
Either the astrologer had murdered the woman to prove his accuracy, or he was so prescient that he could threaten Louis himself. The astrologer had to be murdered. The king ordered his servants that upon his signal, they were to throw the astrologer out the window to a certain death. You'd be surprised, by the way, by how many seers in history have met this fate. So advice to astrologers, keep away from kings and heights. When the astrologer arrived to meet Louis, the king asked him one last question. Given your prophetic abilities, tell me, how long will you live? Not missing a beat, the astrologer replied, I will die three days before your majesty. And Louis never gave the signal. Did the astrologer find his answer in the stars?
I don't think so. I think he understood the power of prediction and used it to get himself life insurance. Smart astrologer. Even though we tend to associate prediction with knowledge, I'd like to invite you to consider the possibility that most of the predictions that you encounter in an everyday setting are closer to the realm of power than that of knowledge. It might seem that the days in which we sought astrologers and soothsayers to tell us about the future are very distant. But often we use AI as the new Oracle of Delphi, and tech executives whisper in the ears of our leaders, much like court astrologers used to. Granted, the technology is different, but the political role is not. Predictions are often power plays in disguise.
They justify value-laden decisions under the pretense of facts. Better understanding prediction matters more than ever, because we're relying on forecasting more than ever with AI. And based on how we talk about prediction, we're being much too naive about it. But AI is science, you might think. It's cutting-edge technology, right? Well, it depends on the kind of AI and how we use it.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:03–0:59
2
What do Oedipus and your insurance premiums have in common?
0:59–2:43
3
How are predictions often power plays in disguise?
2:43–5:02
4
Why is understanding prediction more important than ever?
5:02–13:33
5
What historical examples illustrate the dangers of predictions?
13:33–15:00
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from TED Talks Daily
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