Carl Weinberg

To me, that's what the Fed should be thinking about.

To my clients, that's not what the Fed is thinking about, but in my view, that's what the Fed should be thinking about.

I don't know.

I mean, that's really a big question.

First of all, we have four new voters on the FOMC.

We've lost both of the voters who dissented from previous rate cuts.

And at least two of the new people coming on board may be more inclined to ease rather than to hold steady, even as soon as the next meeting.

Against that, Fed Chair Powell still commands probably three votes on the FOMC out of the 12.

And that's the swing, if you will, between those who will ease and those who will settle.

So I don't really know where they're going to go on this.

But what I'm hoping to see as we move through the year is a change in the perception that payrolls are slowing because the economy is weak.

That's where the Fed is right now to payrolls are slowing because the labor market is tight and there just aren't enough workers to hire to keep payrolls growing quickly.

I'm on the alert for a lot of things coming from China this year that we've never seen before.

If you read the IEA's Critical Minerals Outlook, I believe is the proper name of it, China sits at the root of every supply chain for every critical material for every Western economy.

No exceptions to that.

So, all right, this is a weapon that Xi tested with rare earths last year that he's testing right now again with Japan.

And Xi has things that he wants.

And I think he's going to asking for them with leverage.

I think that's the risk for China in the new year.