Carol Roth

You want to look at the long-term trends.

And things have shifted a lot in the last 15 years in terms of capital discipline, the desire for cash returns, focuses on balance sheets.

So the reward comes from that discipline, not growth at any cost.

So before you may have seen kind of that wildcat mindset, like let's just go drill everywhere.

Right now, the powers that be, the investors, the management, they're trying to drive their gains through efficiency and technology instead of just having a drilling frenzy.

So there has been this shift.

And so they're going to take a long term view on this.

Obviously, if this is something that, you know, God forbid, you see a lot of oil infrastructure that's damaged around the world and things shift substantially.

Over time, I think that that calculus will come into play.

But, you know, again, we've watched Landman, so it looks very easy there.

We're just going to go out and wildcat and get it done.

But in reality, you know, they're really running the numbers, being disciplined and focusing on, you know, cash capital discipline and balance sheet control.

Yes, it would be very bad for everyone.

And I read Neil Ferguson's piece as well.

And I thought that he made some very interesting points that are true and that increases the possibility of a recession, but doesn't necessarily make it probable.

So I think that he's right.

Energy shocks obviously matter.

They ripple through households.

They create issues with costs for food, industrial costs.

They influence how central banks react.