Carrington Clarke

The market is just assuming that it will basically end very quickly.

However, there is obviously great uncertainty about that.

The difference between the adverse and baseline scenario is they expect that the war will continue for longer, the Strait will be closed, and also that we will have an elevated price of Brent crude of, I think, US$145 a barrel.

And then there's two different adverse scenarios, isn't there, that they've looked at?

Exactly.

So Australia will not run out of fuel.

In these forecasts.

Exactly.

That would be a very different scenario.

And this is a really difficult thing to forecast, isn't it?

That the RBA needs to try, they're trying to figure out, well, yes, how much of the price increase that individual businesses are feeling

Do they pass on to their customers?

And that's when we start to see second and third kind of waves of impact of inflationary pressure.

Now, their starting point seems to be because the market was already, there was already constraints that in fact, we would see it pass through faster than we would otherwise see it passed through.

And that would mean that we're going to see higher inflationary pressure.

But this could go either way, right?

And we're in such an unusual situation that it is quite hard to model exactly how this is going to pass through.

And that is a very good point.

We need to timestamp this.

We are speaking before we hear from the governor to get this out to people as quickly as possible.