Carson Block

And look, maybe it all, maybe there already is signal here.

I don't, you know, I don't know.

But, but yeah, I think you just, you have to watch, you have to watch employment, unemployment.

um, and flows very, very closely in the, you know, the irony of this whole thing.

I mean, of, of my thesis, you know, should it play out, you know, again, the AI thesis, this is mine, the market fragility, this is Mike green convincing me.

Um, but, um,

The companies whose stocks have benefited the most on the way up here are the ones that have the furthest to fall just because of that dynamic, that reversal in flows.

Now, in terms of businesses, they'll obviously be left standing and somewhat thriving in the wake of all this.

And look, one thing we didn't touch on, but I think it's implied, obviously, when you see –

if you see that kind of mass high-end labor displacement that I'm talking about, it's not just an issue of flows.

I mean, you have an issue with aggregate demand.

And so that's going to, you know, so we're talking recession anyway, that'll certainly impact financial results.

But look in the aftermath, these businesses will, you know, will still be standing.

But, you know, I think the way...

You want to be able to protect yourself on the way down, probably cash.

We've set up a book and we've set up a strategy that's looking to protect principal on the way down.

So I think a lot of how if you were going to try to actually –

make money on this, I do think a lot of the action is in credit.

And one of the things that's interesting about the post-GFC environment is that implied volatility in credit is so low because you have these structural bids for credit that are also part of the retirement flow story.

If you get this type of scenario playing out, I mean, vol is going to blow out on credit.