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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
We don't just invest in cutting edge companies. We look at companies with a history of steady growth. And companies whose growth cycle has come round again. Because in the real world, you have to look at growth in three dimensions. Monk's Investment Trust.
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Welcome to Merrin Talks Money, the podcast in which people who know the markets explain the markets. I am Merrin Somerset Webb. And this week, I am speaking with well-known short seller and Muddy Waters Capital founder and CEO, Carson Block. Carson, welcome to Merrin Talks Money.
Thank you. Thanks for having me.
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Chapter 2: What are Carson Block's initial thoughts on AI's impact?
Yeah. Well, all right. So the current generation of these models, which was released in January, February, was the first, this is the first generation where it's, you know, I said, these are not idiotic. you know, they have flaws, they have limitations. But I mean, previously, yeah, it was a running joke. But, you know, what we extrapolated as humans is that the progress would be linear.
And it's not linear. It's going to be exponential because of how they're able to develop their successors. Now, just a little pushback. I'm not normally a macro person, but One thing that, as far as the great job success of the US, a lot of that's been in healthcare. And healthcare is a really interesting sector in the US because, look, on one hand, okay, it's going to grow.
When you go back to 2000, Information technology, and look, the way that the BLS classifies sectors is antiquated, really should be updated. But information technology and telecommunications and healthcare are the only two sectors that have grown materially as a share of GDP. And healthcare has grown significantly more as a share of GDP than information technology. Is it driven by innovation?
Yeah, some. Is it driven by demographics? Some. But a lot of it's driven really by the parasitic nature of this health care system, at least in the U.S., that, I mean, there's so much fraud. There's so much inefficiency. So, look, if you say the U.S. has a healthy economy, we have a healthy job market because we've added all these health care jobs.
Chapter 3: How does Carson Block's view on AI differ from his previous skepticism?
I think that's a misinterpretation. So look, does that really go to whether AI or LLMs are going to make a meaningful dent in employment going forward? No, because as I said, we're really at that point now where you're starting to see how these can replace employees in certain situations or at least prevent the hiring of employees. And the next generation will be even more powerful.
OK, but we'll wait and see what happens in 5, 10 years if new jobs, new different types of jobs are created. You know, this whole business of jobs we never thought would exist now. 10 years ago, jobs we never thought would exist exist now. So who knows what will happen in 10 years? But let's take the base case, your base case here, that 15% of knowledge jobs disappear.
Now, the interesting bit for the purposes of our listeners and readers, because we are an investing podcast, is what that does to the market. And I think that's where this gets interesting, isn't it?
Yeah. And so, again, this has been a U-turn for me because there was actually a podcast I did in January where I was talking about how we had developed this systematic momentum strategy in-house at Muddy Waters. And, you know, it's been compounding for us at north of 70. I mean, even I think most recently about 90% per year.
And I was completely sanguine about the outlook for the market and the idea that momentum, as much as it shouldn't, as much as the fact that the stock has gone up shouldn't determine that it'll continue to go up.
But it does. I mean, momentum is one of the greatest strategies there is, isn't it?
especially these days. And a lot of it relates to market structure. And so this is where what I'm saying about job displacement due to AI becomes a problem. So in January, I'm completely sanguine. Question, Carson, well, when does it become a bad idea to invest in momentum within the S&P 500 index? When unemployment rises materially. Well, when do you see that happening? Eh, not anytime soon.
Well, OK, here's the issue. I now do see unemployment, particularly for high wage earners, rising significantly in the next several years. The problem that that creates for markets. is that especially with the S&P 500, so much of that is driven by flows. So especially 401k retirement plan contributions from these knowledge workers.
And look, when you look at the S&P 500 index, I mean, it's kind of ridiculous that we use that as a proxy for the stock market because And generally, two-thirds of the stocks are underperforming the mean of the index, and the mean of the index is really driven by a small number of companies that are outperforming. But what has happened ā and so here I reference work that ā
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Chapter 4: What potential job displacement does Carson anticipate due to AI?
We don't just invest in cutting-edge companies. We look at companies with a history of steady growth and companies whose growth cycle has come round again. Because in the real world, you have to look at growth in three dimensions. Monk's Investment Trust.
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Hi, I'm Tom Keen, inviting you to join me for the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. It's about making you smarter every business day.
I'm Paul Sweeney. We bring you complete coverage of stocks, bonds, commodities, even crypto. All the information you need to excel in the markets.
And I'm Alexis Christophorus. Listen to us for essential conversations with the smartest names in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
That's the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe today on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you listen.
It sounds like you're expecting a massive expansion of the state.
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Chapter 5: How could AI lead to a financial crisis according to Carson Block?
That's the net result of this. Every crisis in the West brings us closer and closer to a state that takes up over 50% of GDP. Yeah.
I don't see an alternative to that. Otherwise, we'll just have tremendous societal instability.
Okay. I was about to say to you, what is the alternative? What are the risks to your view? And it sounds like the answer is very unpleasant instability.
Well, I guess, you know, which view? I mean, are you challenging that AI will displace as many people as quickly? I mean, you alluded to one of the counterarguments that Jevons paradox, right? Like new technologies always create new jobs.
I don't think this holds this time because the rate of change is going to be... So for a long time, I'm talking 15 years, maybe this is just because I'm really cynical, but I've been fond of saying that
Humans are able to innovate and invent technologies faster than we're able to adapt to them, whether these are financial technologies such as financial derivatives or deep sea drilling technologies, you name it. So we invent and innovate. Think we understand the risks and how to manage them. Find out we don't. We have some kind of calamity. But on the back end, we say, OK, now we've learned.
But the problem is when you have these machines building the next generation of machines, the rate of change is going to be and it's going to continue. The rate of change will increase in terms of the improvement of capability. we are, in my view, just not going to be able to adapt ourselves quickly enough to catch up.
there will be new jobs created and there will be people, you know, I think a small number of people who are at the forefront of understanding how to use these technologies and, you know, they'll be okay. But, um, you know, for the rest of us, I, you know, I, I just don't think that's going to be the case. So I don't think Jevons paradox.
I mean, look, I've, I've kind of made a career out of laughing at it's different this time. Um, cause it never has been, but I think it's different this time.
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